鲍威尔证词预期美元上涨

The USD tended to gain against a number of its counterparts yesterday as the US markets reopened after a long weekend, with maybe the most characteristic move being against the JPY as USD/JPY reached new twenty four year highs. It should be noted that the rise of US yields tended to provide additional support for the greenback, while at the same time the monetary outlook differentials of BoJ tended to weigh on the Japanese currency. On the monetary front we also note that Richmond Fed President Barkin add to the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed by reaffirming Fed Chairman Powell’s forward guidance for a 50 or 75 basis points rate hike in the next meeting, characterising it as reasonable. Today we highlight Fed Chairman Powell’s first testimony before Congress which is to be followed by a second one tomorrow, and should the Fed Chairman sound hawkish, given also his past forward guidance we may see the USD getting some support. At the same time US stockmarkets tended to rise as they tried to recover from a deep sell off last week yet all the main indexes for the US stockmarkets, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq started correcting lower during today’s Asian session. Also yesterday, Elon Musk stated that a recession in the near term is “more likely than not” while at the same time also stated that there are a few issues to be resolved for the Twitter deal, yet the statements did not seem to adversely affect the markets. No high impact financial releases are expected from the US today, yet we have a high number of Fed policymakers which are about to make statements and overall, we may see fundamentals leading the markets today. North of the US border though we get Canada’s CPI rates for May and a possible acceleration could provide some support for the Loonie as it could intensify the resolve of BoC to curb inflationary pressures with further rate hikes. CAD traders on the other hand may also pay close attention to BoC Deputy Governor Roger’s speech later today for any clues about the bank’s intentions. Similarly, across the pond, we also expect the release of UK’s CPI rates for May and a possible acceleration may induce BoE to widen its rate hikes instead the usual 25 basis points rate hikes it performs, which may provide some support for the pound today. We would also like to note from the Czech Republic CNB’s interest rate decision. The bank has been hiking rates and characteristically in the May meeting proceeded with a 75-basis points rate hike. Yet the CPI rate accelerated further in May reaching 16% yoy, a level not seen for over twenty-five years handling probably a shock to CNB policymakers. Today we would expect the bank to hike rates once again probably with a 100-basis points rate hike and at the same time remain substantially hawkish foreshadowing more rate hikes to come. Moving to the commodities front oil traders may keep an eye out for the API crude oil inventories figure and should the release show that US oil reserves rose substantially in the past week we may see oil prices slipping and vice versa.

美国边境以北，虽然我们得到加拿大 5 月份的 CPI 利率，而且可能加速加元，因为这可能会加强加拿大央行通过进一步加息来遏制通胀压力的决心。另一方面，加元交易员也可能会密切关注今天晚些时候中行副行长罗杰的讲话，以了解有关该行意图的任何线索。同样，我们还预计英国 5 月 CPI 利率的发布以及可能的加速可能促使英国央行扩大加息幅度，而不是通常的加息 25 个基点，这可能为今天的英镑提供一些支撑.。

我们还想注意捷克国家银行的利率决定。该银行一直在加息，并在 5 月会议上进行了 75个基点的加息。然而，5 月份 CPI 进一步加速，达到 16% 的同比水平，这是 25 年来未见的水平，这可能对捷克国家银行的政策制定者造成冲击。今天我们预计该银行将再次加息，可能会加息 100 个基点，同时仍保持鹰派态度，预示着未来还会有更多加息。转向大宗商品方面，石油交易商可能会密切关注 API 原油库存数据，如果发布显示美国石油储备在过去一周大幅增加，我们可能会看到油价下滑，反之亦然。

美元/日元4小时走势图