随着经济衰退担忧加剧，油价下跌

The USD remained relatively stable yesterday against a number of its counterparts, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress was hawkish yet within the market’s expectations. In his testimony the Fed Chairman stated that the bank is strongly committed in curbing inflationary pressures in the US economy while also noted that a recession is a possibility. Overall the Fed’s path to avoid a possible recession may still be possible yet may at the same time prove to be a difficult one. US stockmarkets ended their day with low volatility being also under pressure from the market’s worries maybe with the exception of Nasdaq that slipped a bit yet recovered the lost ground during today’s Asian session. Oil’s price tumbled yesterday as recession fears tended to intensify also worries for the demand side of the commodity, while it should also be noted that the US President Biden asked Congress for a gas tax holiday to lower fuel prices at petrol stations. At the same time it should be noted that the API crude oil inventories reading for past week, showed a considerable rise of oil inventories which may have also played a detrimental part in oil’s price as it may imply a slack in the US oil market where, production surpasses demand levels, while today we get the EIA crude oil inventories figure for past week. Today we note for EUR traders the release of the preliminary PMI figures for June and should their readings drop if compared to May, we may see the EUR weakening as the drop would imply a slowdown of the expansion of economic activity in the Area. The heavyweight of the release is to be on Germany’s manufacturing sector which is also considered the locomotive of Eurozone’s economy. EUR traders may keep an eye out for ECB President Lagarde which is to attend the EU Council meeting and could make some statements. From Norway, we note Norgesbanks’ interest rate decision and we would expect the bank to stick to the script and hike rates in the coming meeting as it remained on hold in the last one and CPI rates accelerated further. It’s interesting to see whether the bank’s forward guidance will be tweaked more to the hawkish side, a scenario which could provide some support for the NOK. Last but not least on a more exotic note, we would like to see how the Central Bank of Turkey will behave also today. The bank has maintained its one week repo rate at 14%, with inflation for May accelerating further and reaching 73.50% yoy, while Turkey’s President Erdogan warned that his government will try to lower interest rates even further. Should the bank actually maintain rates unchanged once again we may see the Lira starting to weaken. Should the bank show intentions of cutting rates further, we may see the Lira weakening substantially practically sending the Turkish economy in a negative spiral.

同时应该注意的是，过去一周的 API 原油库存读数显示石油库存大幅上升，这也可能对油价造成不利影响，因为这可能意味着美国石油市场疲软，其中，产量超过需求水平，而今天我们获得了过去一周的 EIA 原油库存数据。今天，我们注意到欧元交易商公布了 6 月份的 PMI 初步数据，如果与 5 月份相比读数下降，我们可能会看到欧元走弱，因为下跌意味着该地区经济活动扩张的放缓。重磅消息将集中在德国制造业，该行业也被视为欧元区经济的火车头。

欧元交易者可留意欧洲央行行长拉加德，他将出席欧盟理事会会议并发表一些声明。在挪威，我们注意到挪威央行的利率决定，我们预计该银行将在下一次会议上坚持脚本并加息，因为它在上一次会议中保持不变，CPI 利率进一步加速。有趣的是，该行的前瞻性指引是否会更偏向鹰派，这种情况可能会为挪威克朗提供一些支持。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，我们希望了解土耳其中央银行周四的表现。该银行将其一周回购利率维持在14%，5 月份通胀进一步加速并达到同比73.50%，而土耳其总统埃尔多安警告说，他的政府将尝试进一步降低利率。如果银行真的再次维持利率不变，我们可能会看到里拉开始走弱。如果该银行表现出进一步降息的意图，我们可能会看到里拉大幅走弱，实际上使土耳其经济陷入负面螺旋。

WTI 4小时走势图