경기침체 우려에 유가 하락

The USD remained relatively stable yesterday against a number of its counterparts, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress was hawkish yet within the market’s expectations. In his testimony the Fed Chairman stated that the bank is strongly committed in curbing inflationary pressures in the US economy while also noted that a recession is a possibility. Overall the Fed’s path to avoid a possible recession may still be possible yet may at the same time prove to be a difficult one. US stockmarkets ended their day with low volatility being also under pressure from the market’s worries maybe with the exception of Nasdaq that slipped a bit yet recovered the lost ground during today’s Asian session. Oil’s price tumbled yesterday as recession fears tended to intensify also worries for the demand side of the commodity, while it should also be noted that the US President Biden asked Congress for a gas tax holiday to lower fuel prices at petrol stations. At the same time it should be noted that the API crude oil inventories reading for past week, showed a considerable rise of oil inventories which may have also played a detrimental part in oil’s price as it may imply a slack in the US oil market where, production surpasses demand levels, while today we get the EIA crude oil inventories figure for past week. Today we note for EUR traders the release of the preliminary PMI figures for June and should their readings drop if compared to May, we may see the EUR weakening as the drop would imply a slowdown of the expansion of economic activity in the Area. The heavyweight of the release is to be on Germany’s manufacturing sector which is also considered the locomotive of Eurozone’s economy. EUR traders may keep an eye out for ECB President Lagarde which is to attend the EU Council meeting and could make some statements. From Norway, we note Norgesbanks’ interest rate decision and we would expect the bank to stick to the script and hike rates in the coming meeting as it remained on hold in the last one and CPI rates accelerated further. It’s interesting to see whether the bank’s forward guidance will be tweaked more to the hawkish side, a scenario which could provide some support for the NOK. Last but not least on a more exotic note, we would like to see how the Central Bank of Turkey will behave also today. The bank has maintained its one week repo rate at 14%, with inflation for May accelerating further and reaching 73.50% yoy, while Turkey’s President Erdogan warned that his government will try to lower interest rates even further. Should the bank actually maintain rates unchanged once again we may see the Lira starting to weaken. Should the bank show intentions of cutting rates further, we may see the Lira weakening substantially practically sending the Turkish economy in a negative spiral.

어제 파월 의장의 증언 이후, 경기 침체 우려로 원유수요 감소가 불가피할 것이라는 전망에 큰폭으로 하락했으며, 미국 바이든 대통령은 의회에 휘발유 가격을 낮추기 위해 유류세를 한시적으로 면제하는 법안을 요청하였습니다. API에 따르면 지난주 미국 원유 재고는 560만 배럴, 휘발유는 120만 배럴씩 각 증가하였고, 수요보다 재고가 높아지며 석유 가격에 부정적 영향을 미쳤습니다. 금일 예정됐던 EIA석유재고 발표를 시스템 문제로 최소 다음주까지 연기 되었습니다. 금일 유로 6월 제조업 구매관리지수 발표예정이며 전월대비 하락 예상되며, 하락할 경우, EUR은 하락세를 보일 것으로 전망됩니다. 독일 6월 제조업 구매관리자 지수에도 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 금일 유럽연합 지도자 정상회의가 있을 예정이며, 유럽중앙은행 라가르드 총재의 발언에도 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

• 노르웨이는 5월 금리를 0.75%로 동결하였었으나 인플레이션 압력이 커지자, 이번 회의에선 금리를 인상 할 것으로 예상됩니다. 은행의 포워드 가이던스가 매파적인 기조를 보인다면 NOK는 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다. 다가오는 목요일의 터키은행의 행보가 귀추가 주목됩니다. 터키는 지난 5월 기준 인플레이션이 24년 최고치인 74%까지 치솟았으나 기준금리를 14%로 유지하였고, 에르도안 대통령은 추가 금리 인하를 예고하였습니다. 은행이 금리 인하정책을 고수한다면 TRY는 하락할 것입니다. 에르도안 정부가 계속해서 저금리를 고집한다면 터키의 경제는 더욱 악화 될 수

WTI 4시간 차트