景気下落懸念が強まり、原油価格が下落

The USD remained relatively stable yesterday against a number of its counterparts, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress was hawkish yet within the market’s expectations. In his testimony the Fed Chairman stated that the bank is strongly committed in curbing inflationary pressures in the US economy while also noted that a recession is a possibility. Overall the Fed’s path to avoid a possible recession may still be possible yet may at the same time prove to be a difficult one. US stockmarkets ended their day with low volatility being also under pressure from the market’s worries maybe with the exception of Nasdaq that slipped a bit yet recovered the lost ground during today’s Asian session. Oil’s price tumbled yesterday as recession fears tended to intensify also worries for the demand side of the commodity, while it should also be noted that the US President Biden asked Congress for a gas tax holiday to lower fuel prices at petrol stations. At the same time it should be noted that the API crude oil inventories reading for past week, showed a considerable rise of oil inventories which may have also played a detrimental part in oil’s price as it may imply a slack in the US oil market where, production surpasses demand levels, while today we get the EIA crude oil inventories figure for past week. Today we note for EUR traders the release of the preliminary PMI figures for June and should their readings drop if compared to May, we may see the EUR weakening as the drop would imply a slowdown of the expansion of economic activity in the Area. The heavyweight of the release is to be on Germany’s manufacturing sector which is also considered the locomotive of Eurozone’s economy. EUR traders may keep an eye out for ECB President Lagarde which is to attend the EU Council meeting and could make some statements. From Norway, we note Norgesbanks’ interest rate decision and we would expect the bank to stick to the script and hike rates in the coming meeting as it remained on hold in the last one and CPI rates accelerated further. It’s interesting to see whether the bank’s forward guidance will be tweaked more to the hawkish side, a scenario which could provide some support for the NOK. Last but not least on a more exotic note, we would like to see how the Central Bank of Turkey will behave also today. The bank has maintained its one week repo rate at 14%, with inflation for May accelerating further and reaching 73.50% yoy, while Turkey’s President Erdogan warned that his government will try to lower interest rates even further. Should the bank actually maintain rates unchanged once again we may see the Lira starting to weaken. Should the bank show intentions of cutting rates further, we may see the Lira weakening substantially practically sending the Turkish economy in a negative spiral.

米国株式市場は、ナスダックが少し下落したものの、今日のアジア時間で回復した以外は、市場の懸念から圧力を受け、低いボラティリティで一日を終えた。バイデン米大統領が、ガソリンスタンドの燃料価格を下げるためにガソリン税の免税措置を議会に要請したことも注目される。同時に、先週のAPI原油在庫統計では、原油在庫が大幅に増加したことに留意する必要がある。これは、米国の原油市場において生産が需要を上回っていることを意味し、原油価格に悪影響を及ぼすだろう。本日、ユーロ投資家は6月のPMI速報値の発表を控えており、5月と比較して数値が低下した場合、域内の経済活動の拡大の鈍化を意味するため、ユーロが弱含みとなるだろう。ユーロ圏経済の牽引役とされるドイツの製造業が注目される。

ユーロ投資家は、EU理事会に出席するラガルドECB総裁の発言に注目する必要がありそうだ。ノルウェーでは、ノルウェー銀行が利上げを決定した。前回の利上げでは据え置きが続き、消費者物価指数もさらに上昇したことから、今回の利上げでは台本に忠実であることが予想される。このシナリオはノルウェークローネの上昇材料となるだろう。トルコ中央銀行は1週間物レポ金利を14%に維持し、5月のインフレ率はさらに加速して前年同月比73.50%に達し、トルコのエルドアン大統領は政府がさらに金利を下げようとすると警告している。もし、トルコ中央銀行が再び金利を据え置いた場合、リラ安が始まるかもしれない。さらに利下げに踏み切った場合、トルコ経済は負のスパイラルに陥り、大幅なリラ安となるだろう。

WTI 4時間チャート