市场担忧似乎持续存在

USD remained relatively stable against its counterparts yesterday, maybe rescued by safe-haven inflows. Also, the unexpected improvement of the consumer sentiment for March may have provided some support for the USD yesterday. Overall, should market worries intensify we may see the USD gaining additional support. Please note that the number of high-impact financial releases stemming from the US is low and thus may allow fundamentals to play a key role regarding the greenback’s direction. On the other hand, US stock markets were slightly in the reds as traders seemed to hesitate given the market worries for the US banking sector which resurfaced despite reassurances provided by Fed Board Governor Barr that US banks are sound and resilient. It’s interesting that Fed’s Barr blamed the fallout of SVB on bad management rather than any systemic reason as he called it a ‘textbook case of mismanagement’. Also, we highlight that Ali Baba’s share price got a boost yesterday as the company announced a break up of its operations into six entities which on a wider level may signal that Beijing’s crackdown on tech companies may be nearing an end. Gold’s price tended to be on the rise yesterday breaking the negative correlation with the USD despite US yields remaining stable. Should US yields start rising given the market worries we may see the shiny metal’s price weakening, while a possible strengthening of the USD may intensify a bearish effect for gold. On the commodities front, WTI’s price edged higher yesterday after a substantial jump on Monday, as the API weekly crude oil inventories figure showed that US inventories dropped in the past week in a clear sign that demand levels out-performed oil production, while worries over reduced supply from Iraq’s Kurdistan region tend to provide an additional boost. In Europe, we note that we have a number of factors puzzling EUR traders. On a fundamental level, we note that violent protests in France are still ongoing, while additional unrest is being placed in the Eurozone by strikes staged in Germany which paralyzed the country. Overall the ongoing social unrest tends to weigh on the EUR as uncertainty grows. Please also note that three major banks, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and HSBC may be charged by French authorities after searches in their Paris offices over the dividend tax fraud scheme, which tends to add more uncertainty for Europe’s banking sector. On a monetary level, we note that ECB’s easing on its aggressive hawkish stance that could also weigh on EUR somewhat, should it maintained by ECB policymakers in their coming statements.

我们还强调昨天阿里巴巴的股价得到了提振，因为该公司宣布将其业务拆分为6个实体，这在更广泛的层面上可能表明北京对科技公司的打击可能即将结束. 尽管美国收益率保持稳定，但金价昨日仍趋于上涨，打破了与美元的负相关性。如果美国收益率开始上升，考虑到市场的担忧，我们可能会看到贵金属价格将走弱，而美元可能走强可能会加剧对黄金的看跌效应.

至于商品, WTI价格继周一大幅上涨后，昨天小幅走高, 因为周 API 原油库存数据显示上周美国库存下降，这明确的表明需求水平超过了良好的石油产量的明显迹象, 同时令人担忧的伊拉克Kurdistan 地区供应的过度减少往往提供了额外提振.

今日其他亮点:

During today’s early European session, we note the release of Germany’s GfK Consumer sentiment for April, France’s consumer confidence for March, and later on we highlight from the Czech Republic CNB’s interest rate decision while in the American session, we note the release of EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure. As for speakers we note UK Finance Minister Hunt, Fed Board Governor Barr’s testimony, BoE’s Mann and ECB Schnabel.  

欧元/美元4小时走势图

支撑: 1.0695 (S1), 1.0530 (S2), 1.0430 (S3)

阻力: 1.0855 (R1), 1.1000 (R2), 1.1140 (R3)

美元/日元4小时走势图

支撑: 129.75 (S1), 127.55 (S2), 125.05 (S3)

阻力: 132.85 (R1), 135.15 (R2), 137.90 (R3)

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