市場の不安は持続しているようだ

USD remained relatively stable against its counterparts yesterday, maybe rescued by safe-haven inflows. Also, the unexpected improvement of the consumer sentiment for March may have provided some support for the USD yesterday. Overall, should market worries intensify we may see the USD gaining additional support. Please note that the number of high-impact financial releases stemming from the US is low and thus may allow fundamentals to play a key role regarding the greenback’s direction. On the other hand, US stock markets were slightly in the reds as traders seemed to hesitate given the market worries for the US banking sector which resurfaced despite reassurances provided by Fed Board Governor Barr that US banks are sound and resilient. It’s interesting that Fed’s Barr blamed the fallout of SVB on bad management rather than any systemic reason as he called it a ‘textbook case of mismanagement’. Also, we highlight that Ali Baba’s share price got a boost yesterday as the company announced a break up of its operations into six entities which on a wider level may signal that Beijing’s crackdown on tech companies may be nearing an end. Gold’s price tended to be on the rise yesterday breaking the negative correlation with the USD despite US yields remaining stable. Should US yields start rising given the market worries we may see the shiny metal’s price weakening, while a possible strengthening of the USD may intensify a bearish effect for gold. On the commodities front, WTI’s price edged higher yesterday after a substantial jump on Monday, as the API weekly crude oil inventories figure showed that US inventories dropped in the past week in a clear sign that demand levels out-performed oil production, while worries over reduced supply from Iraq’s Kurdistan region tend to provide an additional boost. In Europe, we note that we have a number of factors puzzling EUR traders. On a fundamental level, we note that violent protests in France are still ongoing, while additional unrest is being placed in the Eurozone by strikes staged in Germany which paralyzed the country. Overall the ongoing social unrest tends to weigh on the EUR as uncertainty grows. Please also note that three major banks, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and HSBC may be charged by French authorities after searches in their Paris offices over the dividend tax fraud scheme, which tends to add more uncertainty for Europe’s banking sector. On a monetary level, we note that ECB’s easing on its aggressive hawkish stance that could also weigh on EUR somewhat, should it maintained by ECB policymakers in their coming statements.

また、昨日、アリババが事業を6つの事業体に分割することを発表したため、アリババの株価が上昇したが、これはより広いレベルで、北京のハイテク企業に対する取り締まりが終わりに近づいていることを示唆しているかもしれない。 金価格は、米国の利回りが安定しているにもかかわらず、米ドルとの負の相関を解消して上昇する傾向にある。市場の懸念から米国の利回りが上昇し始めた場合、金の価格は下落する可能性があり、米ドルが強まる可能性は金の弱気効果を強めるかもしれない。

商品面では、原油価格が月曜日に大きく上昇した後、昨日も上昇した。API週間原油在庫統計で、米国の在庫が先週減少したことが明らかになり、需要レベルが原油生産を上回ったことが示されたためで、イラクのクルド地域からの供給減少に対する懸念がさらに後押しする傾向にある。

その他の注目材料

During today’s early European session, we note the release of Germany’s GfK Consumer sentiment for April, France’s consumer confidence for March, and later on we highlight from the Czech Republic CNB’s interest rate decision while in the American session, we note the release of EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure. As for speakers we note UK Finance Minister Hunt, Fed Board Governor Barr’s testimony, BoE’s Mann and ECB Schnabel.  

EUR/USD 4時間チャート

Support: 1.0695 (S1), 1.0530 (S2), 1.0430 (S3)

Resistance: 1.0855 (R1), 1.1000 (R2), 1.1140 (R3)

USD/JPY 4時間チャート

Support: 129.75 (S1), 127.55 (S2), 125.05 (S3)

Resistance: 132.85 (R1), 135.15 (R2), 137.90 (R3)

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