股市再次上涨

The greenback was on the downside yesterday against its counterparts as overall is tended to experience safe haven outflows as the market may have hoped for an easing of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike stance. Yet we tend to be quite skeptical for such an easing in the Fed’s hawkish intentions, given also that Fed Board Governor Jefferson yesterday stated that inflation remains the Fed’s main objective, even if growth would be suffering the consequences, remains to lower inflation. Nevertheless we saw also US stockmarkets being on the rise yesterday with all main indexes, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq being in the greens for a second consecutive day, implying a certain degree of optimism on behalf of investors. It would be characteristic that Twitter jumped about 23%, after headlines surfaced that Elon Musk may ultimately proceed with his plans to buy out the social media company. On the other hand, we also expect that any rally in US stockmarkets may be short lived, as the negative repercussions of the Fed’s tightening cycle could be reflected on the earnings reports which are to start being released next week. On the commodities front we note that oil traders are to have a busy day today as oil prices got some substantial support yesterday with WTI being on the rise for a second consecutive day yesterday, ahead of OPEC discussion for oil production levels later today. Should the oil producing block actually decide to deliver a decision based on deep production cuts in an effort to rebalance the marekt, we may see the bullish market sentiment intensifying as the supply side of the commodity would come under threat, tightening the global oil market. We must note that the decision is to be taken in an environment where the US is exercising pressure on the block not to proceed with production cuts, as it considers the oil market to be allready tight. Furthermore, we must note that the API weekly oil inventories figure yesterday showed a drawdown of -1.77 million barrels taking the markets by surprise, while oil traders today may also be focusing on the EIA crude oil inventories figure for confirmation.

另一方面, 我们还预计美国股市的任何涨幅都可能是短暂的,因为美联储收紧周期的负面影响可能会反应在下周开始发布的收益报告中 在商品方面，我们注意到石油交易者今天将非常忙碌，因为油价昨天获得一些实质性支撑， WTI 昨天连续第二天上涨, 在欧派克今天晚些时候讨论石油产量水平之前. 如果石油生产板块真的决定在大幅度减产的基础上做出决定，因为油价自6月初以来已经下跌，我们可能会看到市场情绪逆转，因为商品的供应面将受到威胁，全球石油市场将收紧.

我们要注意的是该决定将在美国对该集团施加压力的环境中做出，而不是继续进行减产，因为它认为石油市场已经趋紧。.    此外, 我们要注意的是昨天API 周石油库存数据显示下降177万桶，    令市场感到意外, 而今天石油交易者可能也会关注EIA原油库存数据以进行确认 .  

今日其他亮点

在今天欧洲时段，我们注意到8月份德国贸易数据，9月份法国，德国和英国服务业终值和综合PMI 数据的发布。在美国时段，我们将获得9月份美国ADP 国家就业数据, 9月份 ISM 非制造业PMI 数据的发布，我们注意到8月份加拿大建筑许可增长率和同月份贸易数据的发布. 在货币方面，我们注意到亚特兰大联储主席Bostic计划将发表讲话 ，而在明天亚洲时段，我们注意到8月份澳大利亚贸易数据的发布.

道琼斯指数4小时走势图

支撑: 29520 (S1), 28600 (S2), 27320 (S3)

阻力: 30375 (R1), 31300 (R2), 32400 (R3)

WTI Daily Chart

支撑: 81.50 (S1), 76.00 (S2), 69.10 (S3)

阻力: 87.00 (R1), 94.00 (R2), 102.50 (R3)

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