美元在紧张的市场中喜忧参半

昨天美元兑其他货币小幅走低, 发出一些喜忧参半信号，其中避险货币是当日主要的获益者.

随着美国财政部长耶伦再次警告美国政府可能在12月15日耗尽资金，尽管找到了临时解决方案，但仍存在不确定性，由于市场担忧加剧，美国股市也发出喜忧参半信号. 在金融发布方面, 昨天10月份建筑业数据也发出喜忧参半信号，今天我们要注意的是每周初次申领失业救济金人数和11月份费城联储商业指数的发布.

继拜登呼吁后WTI 价格下跌

WTI prices dropped yesterday as news emerged that the US has asked countries such as China, Japan and India, which are heavy users of oil to consider tapping their national oil reserves in a combined effort to bring oil prices down. It was also reported by Reuters that China’s State Reserve Bureau has stated that it was working on a release of crude oil reserves yet did not comment on the reports for the US proposal. It should be noted that oil prices dropped despite the EIA reporting yesterday a surprise decline in the US oil inventories for the past week which under other circumstances could have provoked oil bulls. EIA had reported that increased refining and rising exports were among the main reasons for the reduction of US inventories. Overall, we may see the releases from the strategic oil reserves of various countries actually exercising pressure on the oil prices, yet a correction of the oil market could be achieved only by a rebalancing of supply and demand levels in the long term.

值得注意的是尽管昨天EIA 报告上周美国石油库存意外下降，但油价下跌，在其他情况下，这可能会引发石油看涨. EIA 报告称，炼油和出口的增加是美国库存减少的主要原因. 总体来看，各国战略石油储备的释放实际上对油价构成压力，但长期来看，只有通过供需水平的再平衡才能实现石油市场的调整.

尽管零售销售数据强劲，但澳元继续下跌

今天我们重点放在土耳其央行发布的利率决议. 10月份土耳其通货膨胀进一步加速，人们可以预期，央行可能会开始收紧货币政策. 但另一方面, 土耳其总统Erdogan 似乎仍在敦促央行降低利率，以促进经济复苏. 表现在土耳其总统Erdogan 昨天表示他将继续与高利率斗争“到底”. 请注意在路透社最近的一项调查中，参与者似乎期望降息10个基点，使1周回购率从目前的16.00%降至15.00%. 市场已做自我定价并在发布前一直在抛售土耳其里拉，表现在美元/土耳其里拉创历史新高. 整体情况貌似恶性循环, 如果央行再次降息，我们可能会看到土耳其里拉将再次下跌.

美元/日元4小时走势图