黄金价格受益于美元疲软

黄金价格昨天突破了 1,800 美元的关键心理水平，因为人们普遍认为，由于大流行的高度传染性 Delta 变体的风险增加，美联储可能推迟缩减量化宽松计划。值得留意的是，昨日美元兑多数其他货币趋于疲软，金价也受到支撑，而美国国债收益率似乎小幅走高，如果黄金多头继续上涨，这可能会为多头提供动力。

此外，8 月份的采购经理人初步数据往往令美元交易员失望，因为他们的数据显示，本月经济活动的扩张速度低于预期，令投资者对美国经济的复苏感到担忧。市场的注意力现在转向美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上的讲话，以进一步了解美联储缩减规模的意图，而今天，鉴于高影响力金融发布的数量较少，基本面可能会起主导作用。

石油价格受到需求希望改善的支撑

WTI prices were on the rise on Monday recovering from a steep loss over the past week as hopes for an improved demand outlook were on the rise. It should be noted that US drug regulator FDA granted full approval to the Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, fanning investor hopes for higher fuel consumption and thus higher oil demand, as mobility is expected to increase. On the downside it should be noted that the US Department of Energy announced yesterday that 20 million barrels of crude would be sold to comply with relevant US legislation, which could increase the supply in the market and thus could have a detrimental effect on oil’s prices. Also please bear in mind, that fundamentally, downside risks are still present given that the pandemic’s highly contagious Delta variant still has a firm grip over the world and travel restrictions do exist in a number of countries. A weaker USD tended to provide support for oil’s prices yesterday, yet today we expect oil traders to keep an eye out for the API weekly crude oil inventories figure and should another considerable drawdown be reported, we may see oil prices gaining as it would imply a tight US oil market.

在不利方面，值得注意的是，美国能源部昨天宣布将出售 2,000 万桶原油以符合美国相关立法，这可能会增加市场供应，从而对油价产生不利影响还请记住，鉴于大流行的高度传染性Delta变体仍然牢牢控制着世界，并且许多国家/地区确实存在旅行限制，因此从根本上讲下行风险仍然存在。昨日美元走软往往为油价提供支撑，但今天我们预计石油交易商将密切关注 API 每周原油库存数据，如果报告再次大幅下降，我们可能会看到油价上涨，因为这意味着美国石油市场吃紧。请注意加元也受到油价上涨的支撑，因为加拿大经济生产和出口大量石油。3

Today we get Germany’s detailed GDP rate for Q2 and from the US the new home sales figure for July as well as the weekly API crude oil inventories figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session we note New Zealand’s trade data for July while BoJ’s Nakamura is scheduled to speak.

黄金/美元日线图