{"id":91299,"date":"2024-10-08T15:41:09","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T12:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=91299"},"modified":"2024-10-08T15:41:47","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T12:41:47","slug":"gold-outlook-dips-yet-remains-near-ath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/gold-outlook-dips-yet-remains-near-ath\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Dips yet remains near ATH"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price moved lower over the past week<\/a>, \u00a0we intend to lay out the main fundamental challenges for the precious metal, including the recent tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, the release US employment report for September last Friday, and the upcoming US CPI rates on Thursday. We will be concluding this report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Middle East tensions still remain volatile<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The tensions in the Middle East remain apparent, with Israel announcing on Tuesday that it has expanded its ground operations in the Southern region of Lebanon, which may pave the way for a further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah as a fourth division has now been deployed to the area. According to some media outlets, the total number of Israeli soldiers operating in Southern Lebanon may have exceed the 15,000 amount and may widen Israel\u2019s ground operations in the area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the main concern in the region appears to be the widely anticipated retaliation of Israel against Iran and as a reminder, the WSJ had reported last week that Israel warned Iran, \u201cthat in the event of any strike on its territory \u201cno matter how small or large and that it didn\u2019t matter if there were casualties or not.. Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would directly hit Iran\u2019s nuclear or oil facilities\u201d. The issue is so sensitive that following a recent earthquake near an Iranian nuclear facility, some unfounded theories have emerged that Iran was testing a nuclear bomb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, should Israel retaliate against Iran by striking its critical infrastructure within its territory, market worries about a potential regional war may intensify and thus could lead to inflows into the precious metal given its status as a safe haven asset. On the flip side, should we see measures being taken to de-escalate the situation it may have the opposite effect on the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US September CPI rates the next big test for Gold traders<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0The US employment report for September which was released last Friday tended to weigh on gold\u2019s price. The unemployment rate came in lower than expected at 4.1% versus the expected rate of 4.2%, in addition the NFP figure came in much higher than expected at 254k versus the expected figure of 147k, whilst the average earnings growth rate increased to 4%yoy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the US employment report for September came in hotter than expected, implying a resilient labour market which in turn appears to have aided the USD whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price, as it may imply that the Fed may need to refrain from \u00a0aggressively easing their monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, the next big test for gold traders may be the release of the US CPI rates on Thursday which are anticipated to showcase easing inflationary pressures in the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, the headline rate on a year-on-year basis is expected to slow down from 2.5% to 2.3%, which may further amplify the soft-landing scenario for the US economy. Hence, should the CPI rates for September come in as expected or lower and thus imply easing inflationary pressures in the US economy, it may provide the Fed with some greater leeway should they decide to continue on their monetary policy easing cycle and thus weigh on the greenback whilst aiding the precious metal\u2019s price given their inverse relationship with one another. On the flip side, should the CPI rates come in hotter than expected, it may have the opposite effect on the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Chart<\/figure>\n\n\n\n