{"id":61670,"date":"2023-05-02T16:26:45","date_gmt":"2023-05-02T13:26:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=61670"},"modified":"2026-02-05T09:22:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T07:22:02","slug":"gold-traders-await-feds-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/gold-traders-await-feds-interest-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold traders await Fed\u2019s interest rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e0ng<\/strong> remained<\/a><\/span> relatively unchanged<\/strong> since last week, as market fears of a recession<\/strong> have re-appeared<\/strong>, gold\u2019s<\/strong> descent was put on hold<\/strong> and at the time of this report trades around the $1985 level. Following the lower-than-expected Preliminary US<\/strong> GDP<\/strong> rate for Q1<\/strong>, market fears<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong> were yet again heightened<\/strong> and at the time of this report, it appears that the shiny<\/strong> metal<\/strong> is moving in a sideways<\/strong> motion, as the markets await the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> interest<\/strong> rate<\/strong> decision on Wednesday<\/strong> and the US Employment data on Friday<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed economic data keeps the precious muted<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The mixed economic data<\/strong> stemming from the US<\/strong> has facilitated gold\u2019s sideways movement<\/strong>, with the precious<\/strong>, remaining on hold<\/strong> near the $1985 level<\/strong> as these words are being written. Last Thursday, the US GDP rate<\/strong> for Q1 came in much lower<\/strong> than expected<\/strong>, with the actual rate coming in at 1.1%, in combination with the core PCE<\/strong> rates coming in higher<\/strong> than anticipate<\/strong> on a year-on-year basis for March, highlighted<\/strong> the continued deterioration<\/strong> in economic<\/strong> growth<\/strong> and the persisting high inflationary pressures<\/strong> in the US economy<\/strong>, respectively. In addition, the statements by Treasury Secretary Yellen<\/strong> may have provided temporary<\/strong> support<\/strong> for gold<\/strong>, as the \u201cX-Date\u201d for the US to default on its debt<\/strong> may be as soon as June 1st<\/sup>. The heightened<\/strong> fears<\/strong> of the US defaulting on its debt<\/strong>, facilitated inflows<\/strong> towards the precious<\/strong> given its store<\/strong> of value<\/strong> attribute<\/strong> and as such may find short term support<\/strong> until the matter is resolved. Furthermore, the renewed banking fears<\/strong> surrounding the collapse of First Republic<\/strong> re-ignited fears<\/strong> of a banking<\/strong> crisis<\/strong> in the US, which allowed gold<\/strong> to capitalize<\/strong> on a weaker greenback<\/strong>, given its safe haven status<\/strong> in times heightened financial instability. However, we note that the announcement by JPMorgan<\/strong> on Monday that it had purchased First Republic<\/strong>, seems to have temporarily<\/strong> alleviated<\/strong> pressure<\/strong> on the banking<\/strong> sector, thus capping<\/strong> the gains<\/strong> made by gold<\/strong>. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing<\/strong> data for April, which was released on Monday, projected<\/strong> a stronger<\/strong> than anticipated manufacturing<\/strong> output<\/strong> by exceeding<\/strong> analysts\u2019 expectations<\/strong>, thus renewing confidence<\/strong> into the US economy<\/strong> ,as the potential for a recession<\/strong> was downplayed<\/strong>. Overall, the financial releases from last week facilitated short term inflows into the precious<\/strong> metal<\/strong>, as market<\/strong> worries<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong> were heightened<\/strong>, yet contradicting financial releases have increased uncertainty<\/strong> in the market, as traders eagerly await the FOMC interest rate decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold traders itching for FED interest rate decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed<\/strong> is due to release their interest<\/strong> rate<\/strong> decision on Wednesday<\/strong>, with the Feds Funds Futures<\/strong> currently implying a 92% probability<\/strong> that the Fed<\/strong> will raise<\/strong> interest rates by 25 basis points<\/strong>. A validation<\/strong> of the 25-basis point<\/strong> expectations or an unexpected 50 basis<\/strong> point<\/strong> hike<\/strong>, could boost inflows<\/strong> towards the greenback<\/strong> v\u00e0 tarnish<\/strong> the precious<\/strong> due to their negative<\/strong> correlation<\/strong>. On the other hand, should the Fed<\/strong> surprise<\/strong> the markets and in the off chance<\/strong> that it choses to remain on hold<\/strong>, we may see gold<\/strong> soaring<\/strong> past its previous peak<\/strong> at $2050 and edge closer to its all-time highs<\/strong>, by capitalizing on a weaker<\/strong> greenback<\/strong>. Although gold traders<\/strong> may be more interested in the forward guidance<\/strong> released by the Fed<\/strong>, in which should a negative<\/strong> economic<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> be presented it could further fuel fears<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong>, whereas a should a positive<\/strong> economic<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> be broadcasted<\/strong> it could facilitate inflows<\/strong> to the greenback<\/strong> as investor confidence<\/strong> is regained<\/strong>, hence leading to outflows<\/strong> from the precious<\/strong>. Lastly looking past the Fed\u2019s decision<\/strong> market participants will shift<\/strong> their attention<\/strong> towards the US Employment data<\/strong> on Friday<\/strong>, with heavy emphasis being placed on the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure<\/strong> for April which is predicted<\/strong> to decrease<\/strong> to levels<\/strong> last seen in February 2021<\/strong>. In the event that the predicted<\/strong> figures<\/strong> are materialized<\/strong>, we may see the greenback<\/strong> further weaking<\/strong>, leading to further inflows<\/strong> into the bullion<\/strong> whereas a better<\/strong> than predicted figure<\/strong> could strengthen<\/strong> the dollar<\/strong> and thus weaken<\/strong> the precious<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 1975 (S1), 1940 (S2), 1900 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 2005 (R1), 2040 (R2), 2075 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Gold\u2019s<\/strong> price seems to continue in a sideways<\/strong> fashion<\/strong> since last week\u2019s report, having broken below the upwards<\/strong> trendline<\/strong> on the 19th<\/sup> of April and has now formed a sideways<\/strong> channel<\/strong>. We tend to maintain<\/strong> a neutral<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> for the bullion<\/strong>, as long as the price action<\/strong> stays within<\/strong> the bounds<\/strong> of the channel<\/strong>, remaining<\/strong> confined<\/strong> between the 1975 (S1) and 2005 (R1) levels<\/strong>, with the RSI<\/strong> indicator staying near the reading of 50. For a bullish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> to occur we would like to see a clear<\/strong> break<\/strong> above<\/strong> the 2005 (R1) resistance<\/strong> barrier and a move towards<\/strong> the 2040 (R2) resistance<\/strong> line. On the other hand, should the bears<\/strong> take over, we would require to see a clear break below<\/strong> support<\/strong> at the 1975 (S1) level with the next potential target<\/strong> for the bears<\/strong> being the 1940 (S2) support<\/strong> base. However, we note that the expected financial releases this week could heavily<\/strong> impact<\/strong> the gold bullion\u2019<\/strong>s price<\/strong> in either direction<\/strong>, therefore caution is advised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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