{"id":60581,"date":"2023-04-13T16:46:19","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:46:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/?p=60581"},"modified":"2025-10-17T09:28:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T06:28:48","slug":"oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crude<\/strong> is currently on track to record its fourth<\/strong> straight<\/strong> week<\/strong> in the greens<\/strong>, resuming its upward movement<\/strong> and increasing the gains<\/strong> made after the production cut<\/strong> announcement of OPEC<\/strong>. We have to note that the market worries<\/strong> for the supply side<\/strong> of the commodity<\/strong> and the tightness<\/strong> of the oil market<\/strong> may have been the main contributor to its rise. On the flip side market worries<\/strong> for a possible recession<\/strong> in the US economy<\/strong> seem to have started to grow<\/strong> also worries<\/strong> for the demand side<\/strong> of oil<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed<\/strong> light<\/strong> on the catalysts<\/strong> driving WTI<\/strong>\u2019s price<\/strong>, assess its future outlook<\/strong> and conclude with a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US<\/strong> oil reserves<\/strong> seem to have been on the rise<\/strong> slightly this week. It was characteristic that the API<\/strong> weekly reading showed an increase<\/strong> of was of 0.377 million barrels<\/strong>, a reading similar to the EIA<\/strong> release of an increase of 0.597 million barrels<\/strong>. The releases tended to imply that production<\/strong> was able<\/strong> to catch up<\/strong> to demand<\/strong> levels after two consecutive weeks of drawdowns<\/strong>, yet analysts<\/strong> tended to note that the increase<\/strong> of oil reserves<\/strong> was due to another release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve<\/strong> (SPR<\/strong>). Hence we continue to view the US oil market<\/strong> as rather tight<\/strong>. Please note that the US Government<\/strong> has expressed a desire<\/strong> to replenish<\/strong> the SPR<\/strong> soon, hoping also to refill<\/strong> the SPR<\/strong> at a lower price<\/strong>. Should the US Government<\/strong> actually proceed<\/strong> with the refill<\/strong> of SPR<\/strong> that would provide additional<\/strong> demand<\/strong> for oil<\/strong> adding additional strain<\/strong> to the US oil market<\/strong>, given also that the Baker Hughes<\/strong> oil rig count showed another reduction<\/strong> of active<\/strong> oil wells<\/strong> in the US<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC\u2019s cuts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week we highlighted the production cuts announced by OPEC+<\/strong>, yet for the time being it seems that Saudi Arabia<\/strong> maintained the supply levels<\/strong> to Asia<\/strong> for May. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia<\/strong> had pledged an additional<\/strong> production cut<\/strong> of 500k barrels per day<\/strong>. We see the oil production cut<\/strong> announcement<\/strong> as another sign<\/strong> of the distance<\/strong> between the US<\/strong> v\u00e0 Saudi Arabia<\/strong>, something that in conjunction<\/strong> with the financial needs<\/strong> of the Saudi Kingdom<\/strong> may push oil prices<\/strong> even higher. It should be noted that OPEC<\/strong>\u2019s monthly report<\/strong>, which was released today tends to highlight<\/strong> downside<\/strong> risks<\/strong> regarding the oil market<\/strong>, in the summer<\/strong> months<\/strong>. Practically the oil-producing<\/strong> cartel<\/strong> seems to worry about an easing demand<\/strong> in the US<\/strong>, as the economy<\/strong> may suffer a hit<\/strong> from the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> monetary policy tightening<\/strong>. Also, the reopening<\/strong> of China<\/strong>, may not have delivered<\/strong> the expected<\/strong> increase<\/strong> in oil demand<\/strong>, at least not yet. These worries<\/strong> could provide<\/strong> reasons<\/strong> for OPEC<\/strong> to maintain or even deepen<\/strong> further<\/strong> the low oil production levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The demand side worries<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s characteristic that OPEC\u2019s<\/strong> monthly<\/strong> report<\/strong> sites “It should be noted that potential<\/strong> challenges<\/strong> to global<\/strong> economic development<\/strong> include high inflation<\/strong>, monetary tightening<\/strong>, stability of th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/strong> v\u00e0 high sovereign<\/strong>, corporate<\/strong> v\u00e0 private debt<\/strong> levels<\/strong>,” and that “The impact of the recent reopening<\/strong> of China<\/strong> has still not been sufficient<\/strong> to reverse<\/strong> the declining<\/strong> trend<\/strong> in global<\/strong> refinery<\/strong> intakes<\/strong>,”. Yet, China\u2019s crude oil imports<\/strong> were on the rise, with Reuters<\/strong> citing a 22.5% increase<\/strong> for March<\/strong> in comparison<\/strong> to a year<\/strong> earlier<\/strong>. There are also worries<\/strong> for the demand side<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> which tended to intensify<\/strong> as the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> March<\/strong> meeting<\/strong> minutes<\/strong> revealed that Fed staff<\/strong>, is expecting the US economy<\/strong> to fall into a \u201cmild recession<\/strong>\u201d during the year. Such a recession<\/strong> may exactly lower<\/strong> oil demand<\/strong> from the US<\/strong> setting oil prices<\/strong> under pressure<\/strong>. It should be noted that the US<\/strong> central bank<\/strong> is still not over with monetary policy<\/strong> tightening and may intensify the hit on the US economy<\/strong>. Given the lagging effect<\/strong> of monetary policy<\/strong> tightening on the economy<\/strong>, we may expect the worse<\/strong> yet to come. Please note that economic activity<\/strong> in the US manufacturing sector<\/strong> showed another contraction<\/strong> for the month of March<\/strong> while the expansion<\/strong> in the Chinese manufacturing sector<\/strong> may be marginal<\/strong> for the same month<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 82.00 (S1), 72.80 (S2), 66.10 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 89.15 (R1), 97.15 (R2), 102.80 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> edged<\/strong> higher<\/strong> in the past few days<\/strong> being finally able to break<\/strong> the 82.00 (S1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong>, now turned<\/strong> to support<\/strong>. Given the commodity\u2019s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> and the fact that the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> is currently above the reading<\/strong> of 70, implying a rather<\/strong> bullish sentiment<\/strong> on behalf of the market<\/strong>, we tend to maintain a bullish outlook<\/strong> for the commodity\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong>. Please note though that WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> seems to be nearing overbought levels<\/strong> and may be ripe for a correction lower<\/strong>. WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> rose<\/strong> yet stabilised in the past 20 hours after hitting on the upper Bollinger band<\/strong>, allowing for little room<\/strong> for the bulls<\/strong> to play, in another sign of possible stabilisation<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> maintain control<\/strong> and extend their influence<\/strong> we may see WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> rising<\/strong> v\u00e0 reaching<\/strong> if not breaching<\/strong> the 89.15<\/strong> (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong>. Despite the distance<\/strong> between the S1<\/strong> and the R1<\/strong> being quite wide<\/strong>, WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price was able<\/strong> to cover<\/strong> such distances<\/strong> easily within a week<\/strong>, in the past. Should the R1<\/strong> be broken<\/strong> we note as the next possible<\/strong> target<\/strong> for the bulls<\/strong> the 97.15 (R2) resistance level<\/strong>, which has not seen any price action<\/strong> since August<\/strong> last year. Should the bears<\/strong> take over, we may see WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price reversing direction<\/strong>, breaking<\/strong> the 82.00<\/strong> (S1) support<\/strong> line<\/strong>, paving the way<\/strong> for the 72.80<\/strong> (S2) support level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":967,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"vi\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\",\"name\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/pt\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-13T13:46:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T06:28:48+00:00\",\"description\":\"Crude is currently on track to record its fourth straight week in the greens, resuming its upward movement and increasing\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/oil-outlook-wti-resumes-its-upwards-movement\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/vi\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Oil Outlook: WTI resumes its upwards movement\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/pt\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartchinaeducation.com\\\/pt\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\""Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners' needs. 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