{"id":52619,"date":"2023-01-17T14:54:35","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T12:54:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=52619"},"modified":"2025-10-13T16:50:01","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T13:50:01","slug":"gold-extends-winning-streak-from-bolstered-speculations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/gold-extends-winning-streak-from-bolstered-speculations\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold extends winning streak from bolstered speculations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold extended its advance<\/a><\/strong> since last week climbing to levels once seen before in April of 2022. Yesterday the precious<\/strong> pulled back from its fresh highs<\/strong> as the dollar up ticked and temporarily dampened gold\u2019s appeal, however increased bets for a less-hawkish Fed<\/strong> in the coming months put a floor under the bullion\u2019s<\/strong> price. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations for a slower Fed-pace lifts the precious<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of a cooler CPI print<\/strong> paired with a robust employment report<\/strong>, market expectations sparked hopes for less aggressive monetary tightening<\/strong> from the Federal Reserve, <\/strong>which fuelled the bullion\u2019s ascend<\/strong> in recent weeks. Currently the Feds Funds Futures<\/strong> assign a 90% probability for the central bank to slow the magnitude of its interest rate hike<\/strong> in the February meeting to 25 basis points<\/strong>, lifting its target rate to 4.75% level. So far, the central bank<\/strong> downshifted to a 50-basis points rate hike in the December meeting, after four consecutive 75 basis points hikes, as it moves closer to its median 5.1% terminal rate<\/strong>. In recent weeks however,  market participants appear to be underestimating the resolve<\/strong> of the central bank, as they progressively bet that the Fed will not raise rates beyond the 5% target level and will be forced to pivot and cut rates<\/strong> later on this year  Analysts base their projections for a less hawkish Fed<\/strong> on recent data on the inflationary front<\/strong>, as the annual CPI for the month of December showcased that inflation in the US cooled as expected <\/strong>to the 6.5% level from the 7.1% reading of the prior month. According to the report, the headline rate was driven lower by easing energy prices<\/strong> and a further contraction in sales of used automobiles<\/strong>. On the flip side however, housing costs<\/strong> were once again on the rise signalling that, despite the fall of the headline rate, the US market continues to face issues with inflation<\/strong> of a much sticker nature<\/strong> and inadvertently rises the probabilities of inflation becoming deeply entrenched<\/strong>. Nevertheless, the bolstered speculations<\/strong> for a smaller rate increment from the Fed is expected to polish<\/strong> further the shiny metal<\/strong> in the eyes of investors, as the dollar<\/strong> continues to experience outflows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prospects for other central banks catching up to the Fed may support the precious<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since the Fed<\/strong> embarked on its aggressive monetary policy campaign<\/strong> in 2022 other major central banks<\/strong> fell victim to the reign of the dollar<\/strong>, seeing their currencies devalue tremendously. Now that the Fed signalled it is about to lift its foot of the throttle, Bank of England<\/strong>, the European Central Bank<\/strong> v\u00e0 Bank of Japan<\/strong> are expected to cover the lost ground<\/strong> and could possibly pose as the threat<\/strong> to<\/strong> the dollar\u2019s superiority<\/strong>. According to the latest EUR OIS the market foresees the ECB<\/strong> to hike by 50 basis points<\/strong> in the February meeting, attributing an 87% probability for this scenario to materialize. Furthermore, the GBP OIS currently implies a 76% probability for the BoE<\/strong> to lift its key policy rate by 50 basis points<\/strong> as well in its February meeting, while tomorrow the Bank of Japan<\/strong> is expected to keep its ultra-loose monetary stance unchanged<\/strong>. However, since BOJ<\/strong> surprised the markets last month by altering the bands of its YCC policy<\/strong>, market participants speculate<\/strong> that the central bank may abolish its YCC totally<\/strong>. Overall, the prospects for further rate increases by BoE<\/strong> v\u00e0 ECB<\/strong> alongside the possibility that BoJ<\/strong> is to allow the quantitative<\/strong> tightening<\/strong> of the market, could leave the greenback negatively predisposed<\/strong> for further weakening<\/strong> and henceforth provide extensive support for the bullion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 1900 (S1), 1880 (S2), 1865 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 1920 (R1), 1940 (R2), 1960 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe gold<\/strong> breaking briefly above the upper bound of the ascending channel<\/strong> formed since the 21st<\/sup> of December but soon after it retraced<\/strong> it steps lower and it is currently trading near the $1910 level. We maintain our bullish outlook bias<\/strong> for the precious and supporting our case is the RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart which currently registers a value of 60, showcasing that the sentiment is still in favour of the<\/strong> bulls<\/strong>. The price action trading near the midline<\/strong> of the Bollinger bands<\/strong> may imply that the precious<\/strong> consolidates<\/strong> and attempts to form a higher low, which could facilitate its next move north should the bulls<\/strong> maintain<\/strong> their superiority<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> continue to drive the price action higher, we may see the break<\/strong> above the 1920 (R1) resistance<\/strong> level and the possible challenge of the 1940 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong>. Should on the other hand the bears<\/strong> take the initiative, we may see the break<\/strong> below the 1900 (S1) support<\/strong> level and the move closer to the 1880 (S2) support<\/strong> base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Gold edged higher since our last report and reached its highest levels since…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,780,338],"class_list":["post-52619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-market-research","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","blog_tag-gold","blog_tag-gold-market","blog_tag-gold-price","blog_tag-gold-traders","blog_tag-market-research","blog_tag-technical-analysis","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGold extends winning streak from bolstered speculations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This report will present an overview of the key matters currently driving the Gold market. 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