{"id":35844,"date":"2022-08-09T11:59:39","date_gmt":"2022-08-09T08:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=35844"},"modified":"2024-02-05T16:50:06","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T14:50:06","slug":"gold-outlook-steady-yet-bullish-tendencies-could-occur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/gold-outlook-steady-yet-bullish-tendencies-could-occur\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Steady yet bullish tendencies could occur"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> was on the rise<\/strong> since our last<\/strong> report<\/strong><\/a> yet seems to remain rather lazy<\/strong> given the relative<\/strong> inactivity<\/strong> of the greenback<\/strong> in the past few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The negative<\/strong> corelation<\/strong> of the two trading<\/strong> C\u1ee5<\/strong> came once again on display on Friday<\/strong> as the precious<\/strong> metal\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> dropped<\/strong> in response<\/strong> to USD\u2019s<\/strong> strengthening<\/strong>. The driving<\/strong> force<\/strong> behind the movement<\/strong> was the release of the US<\/strong> employment<\/strong> report<\/strong> for July<\/strong>, which showed some solid<\/strong> rates<\/strong> v\u00e0 figures<\/strong> for the US<\/strong> employment<\/strong> market<\/strong> in the past<\/strong> month<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was characteristic that the NFP<\/strong> figure<\/strong> did not<\/strong> drop<\/strong> as<\/strong> expected<\/strong>, instead jumped<\/strong> to twice<\/strong> the number<\/strong> of jobs<\/strong> the market<\/strong> anticipated<\/strong> to be released<\/strong>, reaching 528k. Also the unemployment<\/strong> rate<\/strong> ticked<\/strong> down<\/strong> implying that the US<\/strong> employment<\/strong> market<\/strong> remains tight<\/strong> and the average<\/strong> earnings<\/strong> growth<\/strong> rate<\/strong> remained unchanged<\/strong> instead of slowing<\/strong> down<\/strong> on a year on year level, as was expected<\/strong>, implying that wages<\/strong> are to continue to feed<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a monetary level<\/strong>, the release intensified market expectations <\/strong>for the Fed <\/strong>to continue <\/strong>to hike rates <\/strong>at a fast pace<\/strong>. Furthermore we would note that Fed Governor Bowman <\/strong>stated, that additional 75 basis points rate hikes <\/strong>should be considered <\/strong>from the Fed <\/strong>in order to bring inflation down <\/strong>to 2%<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall and given <\/strong>that the Fed\u2019s intentions <\/strong>to drain <\/strong>the market <\/strong>from excess liquidity <\/strong>remain unchanged<\/strong>, even with the risk <\/strong>of the US economy <\/strong>entering a recession<\/strong>, we may see the market sentiment <\/strong>remaining risk averse<\/strong>, which could initially support <\/strong>the USD <\/strong>and thus weaken <\/strong>the shiny metal<\/strong>, given also that similar intentions <\/strong>were expressed from a wider number <\/strong>of central banks <\/strong>regarding the tightening <\/strong>of their respective monetary policies<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next<\/strong> big<\/strong> test<\/strong> is expected to be the release<\/strong> of the US<\/strong> CPI<\/strong> rates<\/strong> for July<\/strong> tomorrow the 10th<\/sup> of August. The headline<\/strong> rates<\/strong> are expected to slow down<\/strong> both on a month on month<\/strong> level<\/strong> as well as on a year on year level<\/strong> and reach 0.2% mom and 8.7% yoy respectively. Should the actual<\/strong> rates<\/strong> slowdown<\/strong> as expected, it could signal<\/strong> a big<\/strong> win<\/strong> for the Fed<\/strong> and its efforts<\/strong> to curb<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus the pressure<\/strong> on the Fed<\/strong> to continue to hike<\/strong> rates<\/strong> at a fast<\/strong> pace<\/strong> could ease<\/strong>, as the slowdown<\/strong> may imply that inflation<\/strong> has peaked<\/strong> and may have started<\/strong> to roll back<\/strong> down to the bank\u2019s<\/strong> target<\/strong> of 2% yoy<\/strong>. On a market<\/strong> reaction<\/strong> level the release<\/strong>, if the forecasts<\/strong> are realised<\/strong>, could weaken<\/strong> the USD<\/strong> and at the same time strengthen<\/strong> gold\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong>, given the two<\/strong> instrument\u2019s<\/strong> negative<\/strong> correlation<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand the precious<\/strong> metal<\/strong> could find itself in a rather<\/strong> peculiar<\/strong> position<\/strong> as it is also used as a hedging<\/strong> instrument<\/strong> for inflation<\/strong>, while increased<\/strong> Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong> may be present<\/strong> for the bullion<\/strong> at the same time, especially should the actual<\/strong> rates<\/strong> differ from the market<\/strong> expectations<\/strong>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a fundamentallevel<\/strong>, we would like to note the tensions<\/strong> in the US<\/strong>–Sinorelationships<\/strong> and especially China\u2019sintentions<\/strong> over Taiwan<\/strong>. It\u2019s characteristic that Taiwan\u2019sforeignminister<\/strong> Wu warned<\/strong> earlier today in a pressconference<\/strong> that \u201cChina<\/strong> has used<\/strong> the drills<\/strong> … to prepare<\/strong> for the invasion<\/strong> of Taiwan<\/strong>\u201d according to Reuters<\/strong> and urged \u201cinternationalsupport<\/strong> to safeguardpeace<\/strong> v\u00e0 stabilityacross<\/strong> the TaiwanStrait<\/strong>\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that the Taiwan<\/strong> straits are of the busiestshippingroutesworldwide<\/strong> v\u00e0 tensions<\/strong> could halttradingactivities<\/strong>. We highlight the possibleadverseeffects<\/strong> for the globaleconomicoutlook<\/strong> of a possiblemilitaryoperation<\/strong> of China<\/strong> in Taiwan<\/strong> but also the possibility<\/strong> of additionalsanctions<\/strong> being deployed<\/strong> against China<\/strong> from the US<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/u><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • H\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3<\/strong>: 1770 (S1), 1750 (S2), 1722 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance<\/strong>: 1795 (R1), 1813 (R2), 1845 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Gold\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> rose<\/strong> since our last<\/strong> report<\/strong> yet seems to have hit<\/strong> a ceiling<\/strong> at the 1795<\/strong> (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> v\u00e0 calmed<\/strong> down<\/strong> by correcting<\/strong> v\u00e0 stabilizing<\/strong> a bit lower<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We tend to maintain a bias<\/strong> for a sideways<\/strong> motion<\/strong> of the precious<\/strong> metal\u2019s price<\/strong> between the 1770<\/strong> (S1) support<\/strong> line<\/strong> and the 1795<\/strong> (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> currently. It should be noted though, that the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart<\/strong> is above the reading<\/strong> of 50<\/strong>, thus some bullish<\/strong> tendencies<\/strong> should not take us by surprise<\/strong>, given also the consecutive<\/strong> higher<\/strong> troughs<\/strong> v\u00e0 peaks<\/strong> that characterize the precious<\/strong> metal\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> action<\/strong> since the 21st<\/sup> of July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Also indicative of the bullish<\/strong> tendencies<\/strong> is the crossover<\/strong> of the more sensitive 20<\/strong> moving<\/strong> average<\/strong> over the 200<\/strong> period<\/strong> moving<\/strong> average<\/strong>.  On the other hand, the upper<\/strong> v\u00e0 lower<\/strong> Bollinger<\/strong> bands<\/strong> seem to be converging<\/strong>, implying some lower<\/strong> Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong> for the precious<\/strong> metal\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Please note though that fundamentals<\/strong> and the release<\/strong> of the US CPI<\/strong> rates<\/strong> for July<\/strong> could alter<\/strong> gold\u2019s<\/strong> direction<\/strong> either way, depending on the outcome<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> take over, we may see Gold\u2019s price breaking the 1795<\/strong> (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> that capped its ascent higher on the 4th<\/sup> of August and aim for the 1813<\/strong> (R2) level<\/strong> that kept the bulls<\/strong> at bay, on the 4th<\/sup> of July. Even higher, we note the 1845<\/strong> (R3) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong> that has not seen any price<\/strong> action<\/strong> since the 23rd<\/sup> of June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Should the bears<\/strong> take over, we would expect gold\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> to initially break the 1770<\/strong> (S1) support<\/strong> line<\/strong> that held its ground against the downward<\/strong> pressure<\/strong> exercised by the bullion\u2019s price on the 5th<\/sup> and 8th<\/sup> of August and take aim for the 1750<\/strong> (S2) support<\/strong> level<\/strong>. Should the S2 be broken we note as the next possible target for the bears<\/strong> the 1722<\/strong> (S3) support<\/strong> hurdle<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer:
    This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Gold\u2019s price was on the rise since our last report yet seems to remain…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,338],"class_list":["post-35844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGold Outlook: Steady yet bullish tendencies could occur<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This report will present an overview of the key matters currently driving the Gold market. 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