{"id":135998,"date":"2026-09-11T16:56:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=135998"},"modified":"2026-09-11T16:56:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:56:50","slug":"fed-boe-and-boj-to-release-their-interest-rate-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/vi\/fed-boe-and-boj-to-release-their-interest-rate-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed, BoE and BoJ to release their interest rate decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD \u2013 Fed\u2019s interest rate decision to dominate the markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The release of the US employment data for August showed a tight US employment market which could allow the Fed to tighten its monetary policy next Wednesday. We note that the US CPI rates also for August are still to be released as these lines are written and could alter the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed. The bank is currently expected to hike rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and Fed Fund Futures (FFF) imply a probability of 69.60% for such a scenario to materialise. Furthermore, FFF also imply that the market expects another rate hike in the December meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bank deliver the rate hike as expected, market focus is expected to shift towards the bank\u2019s forward guidance. The accompanying statement, the new dot plot and Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s press conference are expected to be scrutinised by market participants in search of clues regarding the bank\u2019s intentions. Should the bank allow for hawkish signals to emerge, we may see the USD getting some support, while US equities and gold\u2019s price may weaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side should the Fed sound uncertain or even dovish about the path of its monetary policy, we may see the USD losing asymmetrically while US stock markets and gold\u2019s price may get some substantial support. Finally in the scenario of the Fed failing to deliver a rate hike as expected, we may see the USD tumbling, while US equities and gold\u2019s price may gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GBP \u2013 BoE expected to remain on hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the coming week, we highlight BoE\u2019s interest rate decision as the main point of interest for pound traders. The bank is expected to remain on hold on Thursday keeping rates unchanged at 3.75% and GBPOIS imply a probability of 76.2% for such a scenario to materialise. Yet GBP OIS also imply that the market expects the bank to hike rates in November. Hence should the bank remain on hold as expected , pound traders are expected to keep a close eye on the bank\u2019s forward guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bank actually sound hawkish, we may see the markets expectations for BoE to hike rates in November intensifying and the pound getting some support. On the flip side, should the bank sound dovish, we may see the pound losing ground as the market may have to ease its expectations for BoE to hike rates in the November meeting. Also we note the vote count as a possible market mover for pound pairs. Should the vote count show that more BoE MPC members favour a tighter monetary policy, we may see the pound getting some support and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPY \u2013 BoJ\u2019s expected to hike, will it signal further tightening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

JPY continued to strengthen across the board in the FX market since last week\u2019s report. BoJ Board Member Masu, sounded hawkish on Thursday, stating that BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Hence we highlight the release of BoJ\u2019s interest rate decision next Friday. The bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points and currently JPY OIS imply a probability of circa 67.5% for such a scenario to materialise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bank hike rates as expected and accompany the rate hike with a hawkish forward guidance, possibly also mentioning an accelerating pace of monetary policy tightening, we may see JPY gaining further ground. Also on a fundamental level, analysts have started to doubt about the depth of the combined US-Japanese market intervention to prop up the Yen. Analysts note that the Fed may be more hawkish than what BoJ may be, which could inherently weigh on JPY once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also on a fundamental level, we highlight the risk posed by the rising oil prices, given also the relative dependency of Japan to oil. Should oil prices continue to rise we may see JPY slipping in the FX market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Japan<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EUR \u2013 ECB hiked rates, signaled more may come<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ECB hiked rates<\/a> as expected by 25 basis points, and signalled that more rate hikes may be on the way. The bank justified the rate hike by stating that inflation levels were high for some time now, and noting the rise of oil prices, given the ongoing US-Iran war. Albeit the bank refusing to pre-commit to any certain path of action, the bank\u2019s intentions are considered as closely data dependant and linked to the path of inflation and especially of oil prices. Possible higher oil prices could keep inflationary pressures in the Euro Zone resilient supporting the scenario of another rate hike by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a political level, the elections in the German state of Sachsen Anhalt, were a landslide for the far right AfD. Despite the risk of a populist far right movement in germany gaining further traction, possibly on a federal level as well, we still see the danger of a regime change as very remote. Nevertheless the election result proved to be a headache for German Chancellor Merz, given also that the state of Berlin and another state are to hold local elections on the 20th of September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Germany<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AUD \u2013 Fundamentals to keep the interest for the Aussie alive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

AUD is about to end the week in the reds against the USD, possibly interrupting the amazing upward movement of the past two months. As for financial releases, the calendar for Aussie traders is rather empty, which could allow fundamentals to continue to lead the Aussie. Given that the Australian Dollar is considered a commodity currency and quite sensitive to the market mood a possible improvement of the market sentiment could provide some support for AUD. On the flip side, a possibly risk-averse approach by the market could weigh, a scenario which played out yesterday, Thursday, as rising oil prices, turned the markets more cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a monetary level, the market\u2019s expectations for RBA\u2019s intentions continue to lean on the hawkish side as the bank is expected to deliver another rate hike in the September meeting, and possibly one more in December. Overall the market\u2019s expectations for RBA to tighten aggressively its monetary policy tends to be supportive for AUD. We expect the appearance of RBA Governor Bullock before Australian lawmakers to get substantial attention from Aussie traders, as Bullock may be roasted, given the public\u2019s fury for the cost of living crisis in Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Australia<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CAD \u2013 Canada\u2019s August CPI rates coming up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s August employment data were somewhat disappointing as the employment change figure dropped deep into the negatives. With BoC remaining hawkishly on hold, Loonie trader\u2019s attention is expected to be placed on the release of Canada\u2019s CPI rates for August on Monday. Should the rates accelerate beyond market expectations, we may see the Loonie getting some support as BoC\u2019s stance may shift even more to the hawkish side. On the other hand, should the rates slow down substantially we may see the CAD slipping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking respective moves in U.S. Treasuries. Overall the intensification of the market\u2019s cautiousness tends to weigh on the CAD, given the market\u2019s perception of the Loonie as of riskier nature. The rise of oil prices may provide some support for the CAD, given that Canada is a major oil producing economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a fundamental level, the US-Canadian trade war is still on an escalating phase. In a latest development, US President Trump, retaliated to Canadas\u2019 counter tariffs with planned product import bans, more duties and a move against Canadian goods in US federal contracts. Overall the tensions in the US Canadian trade relationships tend to weigh on the Canadian macroeconomic outlook and consequently on the Loonie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Canada\u2019s<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD \u2013 Fed\u2019s interest rate decision to dominate the…<\/p>\n

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