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Since our last report, US equities have moved higher.On a fundamental level, we note the recent news surrounding Google,OpenAI and Amazon in addition to the upcoming inflation data for the US and the recent developments in regards to the new Fed Chair announcement. For a more complete picture, we are also to provide a technical analysis of the broad S&P 500’s daily chart.
Google’s threat to OpenAI as Amazon enters the ring
In a previous edition of our Equities Outlook, we had noted that Google appears to be gaining ground in the AI race with Gemini 3, which has allegedly leapfrogged OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which now appears to have some merit as the WSJ reported yesterday that OpenAI has declared a “code red” in an effort to improve ChatGPT and may delay other projects as a result. Hence, considering how seriously OpenAI appears to be taking the rising threat from Google (#GOOG) we would not be surprised to see Google’s (#GOOG) stock price gaining as a result. Moreover, entering the mix is Amazon (#AMZN), which raced to get the latest version of its Trainium3 AI chip into the market. Specifically, per Dave Brown the vice president with Amazon’s Web Service’s the chip was recently installed in a few data centers and will be available for customers starting next week as we understand it. In turn the recent push by Amazon could potentially aid the company’s stock price. Overall in our view, it appears that the AI race is reaching levels of maturity where the big names in the industry i.e Google,Amazon have drastically increased their own production capabilities, which now brings them to the ‘big boy’ table and provides them with an opportunity to claw out their own share of the very lucrative AI sector.
US PCE rates due out Friday
The release of the PCE rates, have been confirmed for Friday and are set to garner significant attention from investors and traders alike. The current expectations for the PCE rates are for them to showcase a slight acceleration on a headline level from 2.7% to 2.8%, whereas the Core PCE rate is expected to remain steady at 2.9%. Now when talking in regards to the US Equities markets the inflation narrative is important as it tends to influence the Federal Reserve during their monetary policy meetings. Thus, should the PCE rates showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the US economy, policymakers may adopt a more hawkish stance which could imply that the conditions surrounding the economy may remain restrictive and could thus weigh on the stock markets. On the other hand, the opposite may occur should the inflation print paint a different picture. In our view, if the PCE rates showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures it may not dissuade the Fed from possibly cutting rates in their meeting in two weeks time, but could instead lead to what we would call a “hawkish cut” where the narrative from policymakers either in their comments to the press or the banks accompanying statement, takes on a more ‘restrictive’ and ‘cautionary’ tone.
New Fed Chair to be announced in 2026
President Donald Trump stated yesterday that he would be announcing the next Fed Chair early next year. As a reminder, the next Fed Chair will be taking over from Fed Chair Powell in May 2026. Moreover, during his comments, the President teased reporters that the next Fed Chair may be in the room, “I guess a potential Fed chair is here too. Am I allowed to say that? Potential. He’s a respected person, that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin”. ‘Kevin’ refers to Kevin Hasset the Director of the National Economic Council in the US, who was been touted as the current frontrunner for the Fed Chair position. In turn, the dovish implications stemming from a Trump nominee and considering Hassett’s alignment with Trump on monetary policy, any official announcement could provide support for the US Equities markets.
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US500 Daily Chart
- Support: 6815 (S1), 6635 (S2), 6515 (S3)
- Resistance: 6925 (R1), 7065 (R2), 7200 (R3)
In the past week, the S&P500 appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for the index and supporting our case are all three indicators below our chart which tend to point towards a bullish market sentiment in addition to the clearing of our resistance now turned to support at the 6815 (S1) level. For our bullish outlook to be maintained we would require a clear break above our 6925 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being our 7065 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the index to remain confined between our 6815 (S1) support level and our 6925 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below our 6815 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 6635 (S2) support level.
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Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.
