{"id":14548,"date":"2020-04-16T15:55:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T10:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?post_type=forex-blog&#038;p=14548"},"modified":"2024-05-17T11:12:28","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T08:12:28","slug":"usd-gets-a-lift-from-risk-aversion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/ru\/usd-gets-a-lift-from-risk-aversion\/","title":{"rendered":"USD gets a lift from risk aversion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The\u00a0<b>USD strengthened<\/b>\u00a0against a number of its counterparts yesterday as grim\u00a0<b>US financial data<\/b>\u00a0flocked investors to its safe haven qualities. Specifically, the\u00a0<b>NY Fed Manufacturing index<\/b>\u00a0hit an\u00a0<b>all-time low<\/b>\u00a0reaching -78.2 for April, while industrial production contracted for March by -5.4% mom and retail sales contracted by -8.7% mom, also a\u00a0<b>record low<\/b>. The data released where very worrisome, showing a\u00a0<b>deep hit<\/b>\u00a0for the\u00a0<b>US economy<\/b>\u00a0in March, switching\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/bocs-interest-rate-decision\"><b>yesterday\u2019s slightly positive market<\/b><\/a>\u00a0sentiment which had started to emerge. Analysts tend to note that given the scale and breadth of the\u00a0<b>US shutdown<\/b>, the\u00a0<b>economy<\/b>\u00a0could contract by 13%, before the\u00a0<b>restriction measures<\/b>\u00a0of\u00a0<b>social distancing<\/b>\u00a0start gradually being reversed. Also, analysts tend to note that they expect some ongoing form of\u00a0<b>social distancing<\/b>\u00a0and lost output to be\u00a0<b>recovered fully by mid-2022<\/b>. We could see the market attention being turned towards the release of the US initial\u00a0<b>jobless claims<\/b>\u00a0figure for the week ended 11th of April, for any signs that the\u00a0<b>US employment market<\/b>\u00a0may be bottoming out. EUR \/USD tumbled yesterday, breaking the 1.0950 (R2) and the 1.0890 (R1) support lines, now turned to resistance. It should be noted though that despite the pair initially recovering from the heavy losses, later on, the bears regained control bringing the pair once again below the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line in a display of strength. As the pair\u2019s price action also broke the upward trendline incepted since the 7th of April, we switch our bullish outlook for the pair, in favor initially for a sideways movement, however the situation seems to remain fragile. Should the pair come under renewed selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 1.0835 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.0775 (S2) support level. Should the pair\u2019s long positions be favored by the market, we could see it breaking the 1.0890 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.0950 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n<h3>CAD weakens as BoC expands quantitative easing<\/h3>\n<p><b>BoC<\/b>\u00a0decided to remain on hold yesterday\u00a0<b>maintaining rates<\/b>\u00a0unchanged at +0.25% as was widely expected. At the same time the\u00a0<b>bank expanded its QE program<\/b>\u00a0as it announced a Provincial\u00a0<b>Bond Purchase program<\/b>\u00a0of 50 billion, while also announced a\u00a0<b>Corporate Bond Purchase Program<\/b>\u00a0of 10 billion. Both programs are to be put in place in the coming weeks and the bank also stated that it will\u00a0<b>increase the level<\/b>\u00a0of\u00a0<b>government bond purchases<\/b>\u00a0as required. In his statement Governor Poloz stated that\u00a0<b>commodity-producing<\/b>\u00a0countries are being\u00a0<b>hit twice<\/b>\u00a0right now yet repeated that +0.25% remains the lower bound for the bank\u2019s interest rates at the moment. Also, during his press conference, the\u00a0<b>bank Governor<\/b>\u00a0stated that it\u2019s\u00a0<b>impossible to judge<\/b>\u00a0when the\u00a0<b>economy will be recovering<\/b>. We could see the\u00a0<b>CAD slowly recovering<\/b>\u00a0from the bank\u2019s interest rate decision, yet\u00a0<b>oil prices tend to remain at low levels<\/b>, providing little help. USD\/CAD rallied yesterday breaking the 1.3970 (S2) and the 1.4050 (S1) resistance lines, both now turned to support. As the pair also broke the downward trendline incepted since the 6th of April, we switch our bearish outlook in favour of a sideways movement initially. Should the bulls take over once again, we could see the pair breaking the 1.4175 (R1) line and aim for the 1.4290 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears be in charge, we could see the pair breaking the 1.4050 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.3970 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n<h3>Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow<\/h3>\n<p>Today in the European session, we get Germany\u2019s final HICP rates as well as Eurozone\u2019s industrial production growth rate, both for March. In the American session, trader\u2019s attention is expected to focus on the number of US initial jobless claims for the week ended the 10th of April while we also get from the US the number of housing starts for March and the Philly Fed Business Index for April. Also in the American session, from Canada we get the manufacturing sales growth rate for February April. During tomorrow\u2019s Asian session we get China\u2019s GDP growth rate for Q1, as well as the industrial output growth rate for March.<\/p>\n<p><b>EUR\/USD 4 Hour Chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/4-April-20\/16-04-2020\/eur-usd.PNG\" alt=\"support at one point zero eight three five and resistance at one point zero eight nine zero, direction downwards\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 1.0835 (S1), 1.0775 (S2), 1.0720 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 1.0890 (R1), 1.0950 (R2), 1.1010 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>USD\/CAD 4 Hour Chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/4-April-20\/16-04-2020\/usd-cad.PNG\" alt=\"support at one point four zero five zero and resistance at one point four one seven five, direction sideways\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 1.4050 (S1), 1.3970 (S2), 1.3865 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 1.4175 (R1), 1.4290 (R2), 1.4400 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/4-April-20\/16-04-2020\/benchmark.png\" alt=\"benchmark-16-04-2020\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/4-April-20\/16-04-2020\/table.png\" alt=\"table-16-04-2020\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The\u00a0USD strengthened\u00a0against a number of its counterparts yesterday as grim\u00a0US financial data\u00a0flocked investors to its safe haven qualities. Specifically, the\u00a0NY<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex blog - IronFX\u2122 | USD gets a lift from risk aversion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD strengthened on grim US data. NY Fed Manufacturing hit record low. 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