{"id":81859,"date":"2024-04-30T14:52:04","date_gmt":"2024-04-30T11:52:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=81859"},"modified":"2025-12-17T13:33:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T11:33:04","slug":"gold-outlook-tends-to-stabilise-yet-volatility-could-be-around-the-corner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/pt\/gold-outlook-tends-to-stabilise-yet-volatility-could-be-around-the-corner\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Tends to stabilise yet volatility could be around the corner"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price appears to have stabilised in the past week, since our last report<\/a> , after experiencing some safe haven outflows last Monday yet monetary policy events and financial releases that could affect the direction of its price action may be just around the corner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today we are to discuss the fundamental challenges laid ahead for the precious metal as well as monetary policy events and financial releases that could affect the direction of its price action. Finally, we will be concluding this report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative correlation of USD and gold not in place<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The classic perception of the market for a negative correlation between the USD and gold\u2019s price seems not to be in place over the past ten days. Gold\u2019s price lost considerable ground while in the same period, the USD edged also lower. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet we expect the negative correlation of the two trading instruments to be on display once again, possibly in the coming week as safe haven flows seem to be easing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that at the same timeframe and despite a relative rollercoaster ride, US yields seem to have remained near the same levels. Hence we still see the case for the antagonistic relationship between gold\u2019s price and US bonds as safe haven instruments to have been inactive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, should US yields start rising substantially we may see trader\u2019s attention turning towards US bonds as gold is non-interest bearing and actually also has storage costs, thus weighing on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall we expect financial releases and monetary policy events to have a substantial impact on the prementioned factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Friday, the PCE price index for March, both on a headline as well as on a core level, failed to slow down, implying a persistence of inflationary pressures in the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The release may add pressure on the Fed to maintain a more hawkish stance, while the market may start to reposition itself ahead of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold and currently, Fed Fund Futures (FFF) imply a probability of 97.9% for such a scenario to materialise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence we expect the market\u2019s attention to turn towards the accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference for any clues regarding the bank\u2019s future intentions. It should be noted that FFF also imply that the market expects the bank to start cutting rates in the September meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet inflation seems to be sticky and may be adding pressure on the bank to maintain rates high for longer. Should the bank\u2019s forward guidance imply a possible delay of any rate cuts we may see the market\u2019s expectations being contradicted and the USD getting some support. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, a possible strengthening of the greenback, could have a bearish effect on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

March\u2019s US employment report<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The second market-moving event this week for gold, is expected to be the release of the US employment report for April on Friday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall forecasts are for the NFP figure to drop and the unemployment rate to rise, implying an easing of the US employment market that may in turn ease the hawkishness of the Fed and thus support gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet there is a wide degree of uncertainty regarding the actual release, as the rates and figures of the report took the markets by surprise a number of times in the past months and should the US employment market prove to be more resilient than forecasted, we may see it weighing on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Financial<\/figure>\n\n\n\n