{"id":133476,"date":"2026-06-17T13:33:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:33:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=133476"},"modified":"2026-06-17T13:33:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:33:53","slug":"feds-interest-rate-decision-under-the-limelight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/ph\/feds-interest-rate-decision-under-the-limelight\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s interest rate decision under the limelight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Markets are closely positioned ahead of today\u2019s Fed\u2019s interest rate decision under the limelight<\/strong>, with investors focusing less on the expected pause and more on the tone of forward guidance, dot plot revisions, and updated macroeconomic projections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any shift in language toward a more hawkish stance could strengthen the USD while adding pressure on equities and gold, as traders reassess the outlook for liquidity and growth. With multiple macro catalysts in play, volatility across major asset classes is expected to remain elevated into the Fed\u2019s press conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How hawkish will the Fed sound?<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market focus today is on the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold, with market attention being placed on its forward guidance in such a scenario. The accompanying statement, the new dot plot and macroeconomic projections and the following press conference are to come under the market\u2019s magnifying glass. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bank reveal hawkish intentions, the release may provide support for the USD while at the same time could weigh on US equities and gold\u2019s price.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices continue to tumble<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices continued to tumble yesterday, with WTI losing 7% since yesterday. We highlight reports that state that the US is now to allow Iran to sell oil and fuel, which if combined with the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz could create a glut in the international oil market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, the news intensified expectations for an easing of the oil market\u2019s supply chains. Should we see hopes for a normalisation of the oil market intensify further, we may see oil prices retreating even lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed signals from US equities<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We got some mixed signals from US equities yesterday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq corrected lower while Dow Jones continued to rise. Overall, should we see the market sentiment improving we may see US equities getting further support while a more cautious approach should the Fed sound hawkish enough, may weigh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s price remains at six day highs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold\u2019s price held rather steady yesterday near a six day high, with gold traders keeping a close eye on the details of the US-Iran deal, and at the same time awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We still consider the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price as being active\u00a0 and should the USD gain we may see gold\u2019s price losing ground and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for today<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get UK\u2019s CPI rates for May, from Sweden Riksbank\u2019s interest rate decision, Euro Zone\u2019s final HICP rate for May, the US retail sales for May and the weekly US EIA crude oil inventories figure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a monetary level we note that ECB President Lagarde and board member Cipollone speak. In tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we get New Zealand\u2019s GDP rate for Q1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charts to keep an eye out<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD<\/strong> tended to stabilise above the 4250 (S1) support line yesterday and during todays\u2019 Asian session. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a technical level we note that the RSI indicator remained just below the reading of 50 implying a bearish predisposition of the market, yet we expect the precious metal\u2019s price to remain in a sideways motion. The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is expected to be catalyst for gold\u2019s direction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bulls regain control over gold\u2019s price, we may see it aiming if not breaching the 4500 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being at the 4850 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears be in charge, gold\u2019s price action is expected to break the 4250 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 3890 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI<\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

WTI<\/strong>\u2019s price continued to tumble yesterday, breaking the 76.60 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We maintain the bearish outlook for WTI, as expressed in yesterday\u2019s report. Yet WTI\u2019s price seems to have reached oversold levels and may be ripe for a correction higher, given that the RSI indicator has reached the reading of 30 and the price action is below the lower Bollinger band. Should the bears maintain control as expected, we may see WTI\u2019s price aiming for the 69.00 (S1) support line, while even lower we note the 60.90 (S2) support base. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a bullish outlook which we consider as a remote scenario at the current stage, we would require WTI\u2019s price to break the downward trendline guiding it, the 88.60 (R2) resistance level, opening the gates for the 88.60 (R3) resistance hurdle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Image<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Support: 4250 (S1), 3890 (S2), 3600 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance: 4500 (R1), 4850 (R2), 5245 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    WTI Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Support: 69.00 (S1), 60.90 (S2), 55.00 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Resistance: 76.60 (R1), 82.00 (R2), 88.60 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Disclaimer:
      This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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