{"id":90838,"date":"2024-09-24T15:51:58","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T12:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=90838"},"modified":"2024-09-24T15:51:59","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T12:51:59","slug":"gold-outlook-tensions-in-the-mid-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/ja\/gold-outlook-tensions-in-the-mid-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Tensions in the Mid-East"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price moved higher over the past week<\/a>, reaching a new record-high level once again. In today\u2019s report, we intend to lay out the main fundamental challenges for the precious metal, including the recent tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision last week. We will be concluding this report with a \u30c6\u30af\u30cb\u30ab\u30eb\u5206\u6790<\/a> of gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Monday morning, Israel\u2019s military announced<\/strong> that it had launched strikes against Hezbollah sites within Lebanon. The tensions, arose when Israel started exploding pagers belonging to Hezbollah fighters last Tuesday and Wednesday, which resulted in thirty-seven deaths<\/strong> with nearly three thousand being injured, in addition to striking Beirut on Friday which resulted in the death of the Commander of Hezbollah\u2019s elite Radwan Force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Israel\u2019s military conducted strikes against Hezbollah<\/strong> sites within Lebanon on Monday, resulting in at least 492 deaths according to a recent report by Reuters<\/strong>. Yet, despite tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalating, Iran\u2019s President Masoud stated on Monday that \u201cwe\u2019re willing to put all our weapons aside so long as Israel is willing to do the same\u201d, which may imply that the door for a diplomatic solution is open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our opinion, we would not be surprised to see the situation escalate even further this week and potentially continue for some period of time, up until Israel has concluded that it has achieved its objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus the recent escalation of tensions in the region may amplify<\/strong> market concerns<\/strong> about a regional war, which in turn may aid gold\u2019s price giving its status as a safe haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, should the matter escalate further this week with more strikes from both sides, it could aid the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side, should a solution appear on the horizon, it may ease market worries of a further destabilization<\/strong> of the region<\/strong> and in turn could weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed cuts by 50bp<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed last Wednesday cut interest rates by 50bp<\/strong>, as was widely expected by market participants. The initial announcement of a 50bp rate cut was well received by market participants as it implies that the Fed\u2019s rate-cutting cycle has now officially begun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn, the implications<\/strong> that the Fed<\/strong> has now begun to ease the tight financial conditions surrounding the US economy could weigh on the dollar and thus aid gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship. In particular, the precious metal appears to have formed a new all-time high near the $2600 per troy ounce figure, following the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, given the inverse<\/strong> relationship<\/strong> between the precious metal\u2019s price and the greenback<\/strong>, should Fed policymakers adopt a more dovish<\/strong> tone in the coming week, such as that of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee<\/strong> who stated earlier today that there are \u201cmany more\u201d rate cuts ahead, it could aid gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side, should Fed policymakers imply that the Fed may need to remain on hold for a prolonged period on time, it could have the opposite effect and thus potentially weigh on the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upcoming financial releases<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The next big test for gold traders may be the release<\/strong> of the US Core PCE rates on Friday<\/strong>, which are the Fed\u2019s favourite tool for measuring inflationary pressures in the US economy. Economists are currently anticipating the Core PCE rate for August on a month-on-month basis to remain steady at 0.2%, yet we view the year-on-year rate to be more significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As such should the Core PCE rate<\/strong> for August on a year-on-year basis come in lower than the prior rate of 2.6%, it may imply easing inflationary pressures in the US economy which may in turn increase pressure on the Fed to continue on their rate-cutting cycle<\/strong>. Such a scenario could potentially weigh on the greenback whilst potentially providing support for gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship with one another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side, should the Core PCE rates showcase an acceleration or stubborn inflationary pressures within the US economy, it could have the opposite effect on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Chart<\/figure>\n\n\n\n