{"id":102512,"date":"2025-02-25T15:28:41","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T13:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=102512"},"modified":"2025-02-25T15:30:09","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T13:30:09","slug":"gold-outlook-golds-dips-from-its-recent-all-time-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/ja\/gold-outlook-golds-dips-from-its-recent-all-time-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold’s dips from its recent all-time high"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, Gold\u2019s upward direction was maintained on Monday, with the bullion forming a fresh all-time high. In today\u2019s report, we are to discuss the possible implications of Trump\u2019s possible implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and discuss the possible implications of the release of the US Core PCE rates on Friday. For a rounder view, we will conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s four-hour chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump tariff plans to proceed?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to a recent report by Bloomberg<\/strong>, President Trump<\/strong> has been quoted as saying that the tariffs \u201care going forward on time, on schedule\u201d with an implied date being the 4\u00a0  <\/sup> of March<\/strong> implying that the US administration may be moving forward with the tariffs on Mexico and Canada<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tariffs would see a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican imports to the US which were meant to be implemented last month but were postponed after pledges by Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexican President Sheinbaum to boost their border-policing efforts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The possibility of tariffs coming into effect on March<\/strong> 4\u00a0  <\/sup>, may be of concern as it could lead to retaliatory measures by Mexico and Canada, a scenario we have previously discussed in our reports. Thus, the possibility of trade wars now having resurfaced, market participants may be concerned about the potential impact on the global economy and more specifically the US economy<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the US is considering the imposition of tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs on China\u2019s chip industry in a possible attempt to curtail China\u2019s technological progress. Hence, should China<\/strong> retaliate<\/strong> against the US, it may spark a trade war between the two economic behemoths which may increase volatility in the markets. In turn, the increased tensions as a result of America\u2019s desire and willingness to impose tariffs, could be aiding the precious metal\u2019s price, given its status as a safe haven asset. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it should be noted that a US official per Bloomberg said that the fate of the special 25% levy<\/strong> on Canada<\/strong> \u3001 Mexico<\/strong> was still to be determined. Nonetheless, should the US proceed with the implementation of tariffs as promised, it may increase concerns about a potential trade war and retaliatory<\/strong> measures from the affected countries, which may aid gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, should we see a postponement<\/strong> of the imposition of tariffs, it may alleviate some concerns and could potentially weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Financial releases<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Core PCE rates for January are set to be released this Friday. The Core PCE rates<\/strong> are the Fed\u2019s favourite tool for measuring inflationary pressures in the US economy and could thus lead to heightened market volatility during their release. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists are currently anticipating an acceleration of the Core PCE rates on a month-on-month basis from 0.2% to 0.3% , whereas on a year-on-year basis the expectation is for the release to showcase easing inflationary pressures with the expected rate being 2.6% which would be lower than the previous release of 2.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, we tend to turn our attention to the Core PCE<\/strong> rate on a year-on-year basis and thus should it come in as expected or lower, which may imply easing inflationary<\/strong> pressures in the US economy it could increase pressure on the Fed to resume on their rate-cutting path<\/strong> which could weigh on the dollar whilst aiding gold\u2019s price given their assumed inverse relationship<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, should the release showcase stubborn or even an acceleration of inflationary pressures, it could validate the Fed\u2019s option to adopt a more gradual rate-cutting path which may be perceived as hawkish<\/strong> in nature and could thus have the opposite effect of our aforementioned scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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