USD stable as Trump’s health perplexes situation

After the announcement on Friday that US President Trump tested positive for COVID 19 the USD tended to remain rather stable against other major currencies. Announcements about the issue, since Friday tended to spread confusion rather than clarify the situation and widespread worries about the US Presidential elections tended to create uncertainty. Also, it should be noted that expectations for a fiscal stimulus in the US are still present among market participants, yet still remain rather low. Any indications that the two sides are nearing a deal in the US Congress for a stimulus could support US stocks as well as the USD and vice versa.
USD/CHF dropped on Friday and during today’s Asian session, breaking the 0.9200 support line, now turned to resistance. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as long as it remain below the downward trendline incepted since the 29th of September. Should the pair actually remain under the selling interest of the market, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 0.9105 (S1), albeit some hesitation could be present also just above 0.9160. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 0.9200 (R1) line and aim for the 0.9285 (R2) level.

Aussie traders eye RBA’s interest rate decision

Aussie traders could be eyeing RBA’s interest rate decision during tomorrow’s Asian session (03:30,GMT) as the release could create volatility. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold at +0.25% and currently AUD OIS imply a probability of 95.33% for such a scenario. Should the bank remain on hold as forecasted we could see the market’s attention turning to the accompanying statement of Governor Lowe. Markets seem to expect the bank to remain on hold through 2020, yet some analysts tend to underscore the possibility of a 15 basis points rate cut in November. Should the bank in its forward guidance imply that a rate cut is in the cards for the near future we could see the Aussie weakening. In general, we expect the bank to maintain an accommodative tone, yet an effort to downplay the comments for a possible rate cut, could make the bank sound more optimistic in which case the AUD could get a boost.
AUD/USD remained in a rather sideways motion, despite slight bullish tendencies and is currently just below the 0.7200 (R1) resistance. We could see the pair maintaining its sideways motion between the 0.7200 (R1) and the 0.7100 (S1) level, yet RBA’s interest rate decision, could create some volatility for the pair. Should the bulls gain control over the pair’s direction, we could see it breaking the 0.7200 (R1) line and aim for the 0.7300 (R2) level. Should the bears take over, we could see the pair breaking the 0.7100 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.7025 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

During Monday’s European session, we get Turkey’s CPI rates for September, UK’s final services PMI for September and Eurozone’s retail sales for August. During the American session we highlight the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for September while in tomorrow’s Asian session from Australia, before RBA’s interest rate decision, we get Australia’s trade data for August.

今週の指数発表

On Tuesday, we get from Germany the Industrial orders for August, UN’s construction PMI for September, the US and Canada’s trade balance for August, while Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak. On Wednesday, we get Germany’s industrial production for August and UK’s Halifax House prices for September while the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting are due out On Thursday, we get Japan’s current account balance for September, Canada’s housing starts for September and the US initial jobless claims figure. On Friday, we get China’s Caixin Services PMI for September, UK’s GDP for August, UK’s manufacturing production for August and Canada’s employment data for September.