US Retail sales rate and PPI due out today

The release of the US retail sales for February is expected to showcase the resilience of the average US consumer as it is expected to escape negative territory and accelerate to 0.8% month on month. Similarly, also the core rate is expected to accelerate from -0.6% to 0.5%, also escaping negative territory, thus implying that the average US consumer has the ability and willingness to spend more in the US economy which could be contributing to its recovery. Should the rates accelerate as expected or even more we may see the USD getting some support and vice versa. Furthermore, we also highlight the release of the US PPI rates for February, and should the rates come in as expected or higher, they may support the notion of a persistence of inflationary pressures in the US economy from a producers’ standpoint, that may be rolled over to consumers at a future stage. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure came in much lower than what was expected by market participants, as such the drawdown in inventories rather than an increase, , may have implied that demand may be exceeding supply and as such may have contributed to a slight boost in oil prices. According to various media sources the acting head of Europe’s aviation regulator stated on Wednesday that the agency could halt its indirect approval of Boeing’s (#BA) jet production if warranted but feels “re-assured” that Boeing is tackling its latest safety crisis. Nonetheless, the comments made could add to the negative coverage surrounding the troubled plane maker and as such could potentially weigh on the company’s stock price.

USD/JPY appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We maintain our sideways bias and supporting our case is the continued narrowing of the Bollinger bands implying low market volatility in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to continue, we would like to see the pair remain confined between the 146.65 (S1) support level and the 148.40 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook to occur, we would require a clear break below the 146.65 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 144.40 (S2) support base. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 148.40 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 150.35 (R2) resistance ceiling.

US100 appears to be moving in an upwards fashion, having formed an upwards moving channel which has been guiding the index since the 5 of January. Nonetheless, the index appears to be on the cusp of breaking the aforementioned channel and as such may imply that the indexes’ bullish momentum may be waning. Nonetheless, we maintain a bullish outlook for the index and supporting our case is the aforementioned channel in addition to the Bollinger bands which appear to be tilted to the upside, thus implying bullish tendencies. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would require a clear break above the 18300 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 19000 (R2) resistance line. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would like to see the index remain confined between the 17500 (S1) support level and the 18300 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would like to see a clear break the 17500 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 16700 (S2) support line.

その他の注目材料

Today in the European session, we note the release of Sweden’s CPI rate for February and in the American session we note the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, PPI Machine manufacturing figure for February and the US retail sales rate for the same month, Canada’s manufacturing sales rate for January and ending off the day is New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI figure for February. On a monetary front, we note the speeches by Riksbank First Deputy Governor Breman, ECB board member Elderson, ECB board member Schnabel, ECB Governing council member Knot and ECB Vice President De Guindos.