US House Speaker McCarthy ousted from his position, for the first time in US Congress history

House Speaker McCarthy(R) was ousted from his position during a challenge to his leadership by Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz. The current political impasse may spill into the US economy, until a new speaker is elected, especially if no clear replacement is evident. In the US Equities markets, Meta(#F) according to the WSJ is considering charging users in the EU for an ad-free version of Instagram and Facebook, which could boost the company’s stock price, as profits may increase from its revenue services. US stock markets continued their descent during yesterday’s trading session, with the Dow Jones reaching levels last seen at the beginning of the year, thus any gains made so far appear to have been erased. Fed policymakers appear to be divided over whether or not to hike during their next monetary policy meeting due at the end of this month, following a much better than expected JOLTS Job openings figure which was released yesterday, implying a much more resilient labour market than what was anticipated by market analysts. During Today’s Asian session, the RBNZ remained on hold, as was widely expected by market analysts, which has seemingly weakened the Kiwi following the decision. Over in Japan, the USD/JPY dropped temporarily by roughly 250 pips during yesterday’s trading session, with rumours that there was an intervention in the FX market by Tokyo. Yet we must highlight that no official confirmation has been announced yet.

Technical Analysis:

USD/JPY appears to have bounced back, following its steep decline down to our support level at the 147.40 (S2) and appears to be currently testing resistance at the 149.30 (R1) level. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair purely on a fundamental perspective. However, we should note that the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour chart currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our bearish outlook, to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 148.40 (S1) and the 147.40 (S2) support levels, with the next possible target for the bears being the 146.20 (S3) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would like to see a clear break above the 149.30 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 150.10 (R2) resistance ceiling. Lastly, for a neutral outlook, we would like to see the pair remaining confined between the 149.30 (R1) and the 148.40 (S1) resistance and support levels respectively.

US30Cash appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the index currently aiming for the 32700 (S1) support level. We maintain a bearish outlook for the Index and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our Daily chart which currently registers a figure near 30, implying a strong bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 32700 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 32000 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would like to see a clear break above 33600 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 34300 (R2) resistance ceiling.

その他の注目材料

In today’s European session, we note the release of Eurozone’s Composite PMI for September and retail sales for August, while ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks and from the UK we note the release of September’s final Services PMI figure for September. Later on, we get Canada’s Leading index for September and from the US the National Employment figure for September, August’s Factory orders for August and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for September while oil traders may be more interested in the release of the US EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure and the OPEC meeting. On the monetary front, we note that ECB Vice President De Guindos, ECB Board Member Panetta, Kansas Fed President Schmid, Fed Board Governor Bowman, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and ECB President Christine Lagarde are scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Australia’s trade data for August.