トレーダーは米7月雇用統計の内容に失望

The USD tended to wobble and finally edged lower against its counterparts on Friday as the US employment report for July tended to disappoint traders. The report as such tended to send out mixed signals, as the NFP figure dropped more than expected, implying that the ability of the US employment market to create jobs eased, yet the unemployment rate ticked down highlighting the US employment market’s tightness. Furthermore, the average earnings growth rate failed to slow down, in a sign that the US employment market may continue to feed inflationary pressures in the US economy. It’s characteristic that both Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee both noted the rebalancing of the US employment market, which could allow the Fed to remain on hold in the September meeting. On the other hand, Fed Board Governor Bowman stated over the weekend that more rate hikes would be required expressing a more hawkish approach within the Fed. We note the split within the Fed yet tend to expect the bank to take another breather at its September meeting to grasp the impact of its cumulative monetary policy tightening.

アトランタ連銀のボスティック総裁とシカゴ連銀のグールズビー総裁が雇用市場のリバランスについて同様の見解を示したことに注目したい。雇用市場の現在の状況が続けば、FRBは9月の公開市場委員会会合で利上げを見送ると見られるためである。一方で、FRBのボウマン理事は週末に利上げの必要性を示し、FRB内においてタカ派的アプローチの重要性を訴えた。 FRBは今までの金融引き締め効果を把握するため、9月の会合で^rd は利上げを見送ると見られるが、理事会の意見は割れていることに注目したい。

その他の注目材料

Today we note the release of Germany’s industrial output for June, UK’s Halifax House Prices for July and Eurozone’s Sentix Index for August and on the monetary front, we note that Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Japan’s All household spending, current account balance and trading balance all for June, Australia’s Consumer Sentiment for August and Business conditions and confidence for July as well as China’s trade data for July, while on the monetary front, RBAs’ Schwarz is scheduled to speak and all could have an effect on the Aussie. Currently, AUD/USD seems to show some signs of stabilisation between the 0.6620 (R1) and the 0.6515 (S1) levels. We note that the RSI indicator continues to run just below the reading of 50, which may imply that the bearish sentiment may have eased. Despite the downward trendline being present for a bearish outlook of the pair, we would require AUD/USD to break the 0.6515 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6400 (S2) support level. Should a buying interest be expressed by the market we may see AUD/USD breaking the prementioned upward trendline in a first sign that the downward movement has been interrupted and continue higher to break the 0.6620 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6725 (R2) resistance level.

今週の指数発表

火曜日には日本の6月国際収支・経常収支、中国7月貿易収支が発表され、独7月HICPおよびカナダ6月貿易収支が発表される。水曜日には中国のインフレ率が発表され、木曜日には日本の7月国内企業物価指数、ノルウェー及びチェコの7月CPIが発表されるが、注目は米7月CPIであろう。金曜日には英GDP、仏HICPおよび8月ミシガン大学消費者信頼指数の速報値が発表される予定。