米消費者物価指数に注目

The US CPI rates for October are set to be released later on today, during the American trading session. Economists are currently expecting CPI rates on a Core level to remain steady at 3.3% on a yoy level and 0.3% on a mom level. Yet, the headline CPI rate on a yoy level, is expected to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.6% implying persistent inflationary pressures in the US economy. In such a scenario, pressure may increase on the Fed to remain on hold, in addition to the inflationary implications of the incoming administration’s economic policies could further add pressure on the Fed to refrain from cutting interest rates. In our view, we would also place heavy emphasis on the Core CPI rates on a yoy level as 3.3% is still way above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and thus a failure to see progress on core inflation could spell trouble for the Fed. Nonetheless, should CPI rates come in hotter than expected, it may aid the greenback. Whereas, should they come in lower than expected or lower than the prior rate i.e. implying easing inflationary pressures, we may see the dollar weakening. In the US, we note the newly created department of Government Efficiency which will be run by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy according to various media outlets. Moreover, the FT has reported that Vivek and Musk will be working with the Office of Management and Budget until the 4 of July 2026. The newly created White House Advisory will provide advice and guidance from outside of government, in an attempt to reduce spending, and restructure agencies in an attempt to increase efficiency as well. In our view, the newly created department may seek to exempt certain positions in the civil service from employment protections, which could increase the administration’s influence in the Federal Government.

利 S&P500 appears to be moving an upwards fashion overall, yet may be due a retracement to lower ground. We opt for a bullish outlook for the index and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure above 60, implying a bullish market sentiment. For our bullish outlook we would require a break above the potential 6150 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 6385 (R1) resistance level. On the flip side for a bearish outlook, we would require a break below the 5885 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 5675 (S2) support level. Lastly, for a sideways bias, we would require the index to fail to break below the 5885 (S1) support level and remain confined between the aforementioned S1 support level and the 6150 (R1) resistance line.

WTICash appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We opt for a sideways bias and supporting our case is the narrowing of the Bollinger bands which imply low market volatility in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart which despite currently registering a figure near 40, which appears to be in line with our current sideways bias, with the bears potentially moving to test our 64.75 (S1) support level. Nonetheless, for our sideways bias, we would require the commodity to remain confined between the 64.75 (S1) support level and the 71.85 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 64.75 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 58.80 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 71.85 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 78.00 (R2) resistance level.

その他の注目材料

Today we get France’s unemployment rate for Q3, the US CPI rates for October and the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Australia’s employment data for October. On the monetary front, we get the Riskbank’s November meeting minutes, and speeches by BoE Mann, Dallas Fed President Logan, St Louis Fed President Musalem and Kansas City Fed President Schmid. In tomorrow’s Asian session, RBA Governor Bullock is set to speak.