The Fed’s interest rate decision is due out later on today

The Fed’s interest rate decision is due out later on today, with the majority of market participants anticipating the Fed to remain on pause. Over in Europe, the Eurozone’s Preliminary CPI rates came in lower than expected, potentially indicative of easing inflationary pressures on the Eurozone. Yet it appears that the easing inflationary pressures came at the cost of the Eurozone’s economic growth, as the Preliminary GDP rates for Q3 came in lower than expected and on a QoQ basis turned negative, implying a contraction. Furthermore, it appears that the rates were received with mixed opinions by ECB policymakers, with Vice President DeGuindos stating that the inflation numbers where “good news” whilst ECB Nagel stated that “inflation has proven stubborn and has not yet been defeated”. Over in Asia, the Vice Finance Minister for Japan, implied that the bank may be preparing to intervene in the currency markets in order to protect the JPY. As such, in the event of a government intervention, we may see the Yen gaining against its counterparts. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.5, implying that the Chinese manufacturing economy contracted during the month of October. The continued deterioration in the Chinese economy, is concerning in our opinion, as the apparent lack of progress since re-opening in January may be weighing down on the economy and as such could have implications a more global scale, given China’s status as a global economic powerhouse. Furthermore on a geopolitical note, we would like to the statement made by the US Defence Secretary Austin, that should attacks on US forces continue and do not stop “we will respond”, implying potential military action by the US in the Middle East which could further destabilize the region.

USD/JPY appears to have stagnated near the 151.75 (R1) resistance level. We maintain a bearish outlook, despite the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour chart currently registering a figure near 70, implying a bullish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook, to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 150.10 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 148.00 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would like to see a clear break above the 151.75 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 153.35 (R2) resistance ceiling. Lastly for a neutral outlook, we would like to see the pair failing to break above the 151.75 (R1) resistance level and remaining confined between the 150.10 (S1) support and the 151.75 (R1) support and resistance levels respectively.

US100 appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, despite currently testing our downwards moving trendline. We maintain a bearish outlook for the index and supporting our case, is the RSI indicator below our Daily chart which currently registers a figure below 50, implying a bearish market sentiment, in addition to our downwards moving trendline. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 13920 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 13200 (S2) support level. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would like to see a clear break above the 14450 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 15300 (R2) resistance ceiling.

その他の注目材料

Today in the European session, we highlight the release of the UK’s Nationwide house prices rate on a mom basis for October and the UK’s Final Manufacturing PMI figure for October. During the American session, we note the US ADP National Employment figure for October, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI figure for October as well, the US Jolts Job Openings figure for September, and during tomorrow’s Asian session, we note Australia’s trade balance figure for September. On a monetary level, we note the speech by SNB Chairman Jordan and we highlight the Fed’s interest rate decision later on in the day, followed by the joint speech from BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers.