RBNZ decision tomorrow

The RBNZ’s interest rate decision is set to occur during tomorrow’s Asian session. The majority of market participants are anticipating the bank to cut interest rates with NZD OIS currently implying a 75.79% probability for such a scenario to materialize. As such attention may turn to the bank’s accompanying statement, in which should the bank imply that it may continue cutting interest rates in the future, it may be perceived as dovish in nature which in turn may weigh on the NZD. On the flip side, should it imply that the bank may withhold from cutting interest rates in the near future, it could instead be perceived as hawkish in nature, which may aid the NZD.In the UK, the nation’s employment data was released earlier on today. In particular, we mote the unemployment rate for June which came in lower than expected at 4.2% which is lower than the expected rate of 4.5% and the prior rate of 4.4%. Hence, the better-than-expected unemployment rate implies a resilient labour market which may have aided the pound. Moreover, of interest was the average hourly earnings rate which also came in higher than expected at 5.4%, which tends to echo the concerns by BoE Mann who stated yesterday that wage growth is a concern for inflation. Thus, the aforementioned releases may increase pressure on the BoE to withhold from cutting interest rates further until they have achieved greater confidence that inflationary pressures are easing in the UK economy. In the Middle East, we note that the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman according to Asharq news, stated that “those who call on Tehran to refrain from responding to Israel lack political logic”, which tends to imply that Iran may indeed proceed with a retaliatory strike against Israel. Hence, the risk of further tensions in the Middle East may aid oil and gold prices.

WTICash appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for the commodity’s price and supporting our case is the commidity’s recent price action, upon which it is currently attempting to break above our 78.00 (R1) resistance line. However, the RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure near 50 , which tends to imply a neutral market sentiment. Nonetheless, for our bullish outlook to continue we would require a break above the 78.00 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 83.45 (R2) resistance level. On the flip side, for a sideways bias we would require the commodity to remain confined between the sideways moving channel, defined by the 71.50 (S1) support line and the 78.00 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below the 71.50 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 64.10 (S2) support level.

XAU/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for the precious metal and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 70, implying a bullish market sentiment, in addition to the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 8 of August. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would require gold’s price to clearly break above the 2470 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 2520 (R2) resistance level. On the flip side for a sideways bias we would require gold’s price to remain confined between the 2380 (S1) support line and the 2470 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 2380 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 2330 (S2) support level.

本日のその他の注目点

Today in the European session, we get Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions figures for August and during the American session we note the US PPI machine manufacturing figure for July. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we note Japan’s Reuters tankan non-manufacturing index figure for August. On a monetary level, we highlight New Zealand’s interest rate decision during tomorrow’s Asian session.