市場を動かす金融指数

The USD remained relatively unchanged yesterday, allowing for other currencies to take the initiative. US stockmarkets were in the reds yesterday, as the Fed’s hawkish talk tended to intensify market worries for a possible overtightening of the Fed’s monetary policy, while the rise of US yields to their highest level since November, with the 2-year yield reaching 4.5% and tended to also contribute to the drop of US stock market indexes. It was characteristic that Richmond Fed President Barkin was reported yesterday stating that it is important that the Fed has to “stay the course”, ie keep hiking rates in order to ensure that inflation slows back down to the bank’s 2% target. North of the US border, CAD traders tend to focus on the release of Canada’s employment data for January, and forecasts show that the employment change figure is expected to drop from December’s stellar 104k to 15k and the unemployment rate to tick up to 5.1%. Despite an easing of the Canadian employment market’s tightening the unemployment rate remains at low levels and the employment market seems to remain in a healthy state that could provide some grounds for BoC to hike rates should it be necessary. On the other hand though should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts a slight disappointment could weaken the CAD somewhat. Across the Atlantic, hawkish talk from BoE Governor Bailey tended to support the sterling, as the Governor expressed his concerns about the risks of a persistently high inflation in the UK economy. As for financial releases we note that UK’s GDP rate slowed down for Q4, remaining in the positives as expected on a year-on-year level, yet the worrying part was that the rate on a month-on-month level showed a wider contraction than expected catching analysts’ eyes. Overall, we tend to maintain our worries for the cost-of-living crisis tormenting the UK economy, while we note that a continuation of BoE’s monetary policy tightening could have an adverse effect on growth. Last but not least in Japan, news just emerged that the Japanese government is considering to appoint former BoJ policy board member and economist Kazuo Ueda as the next governor of BoJ. The report by

大西洋の向こう側では、ベイリーBOE総裁が英国経済の高インフレが続くリスクへの懸念を表明し、タカ派的な発言がポンドを支える傾向があった。財務関連の発表では、英国の第4四半期のGDPが減速し、前年同期比では予想通りプラスに転じたが、前月比では予想以上に縮小し、アナリストの目を引いていることが気がかりだ。全体として、私達は英国経済を苦しめる生活費危機への懸念を維持する傾向があり、BOEの金融引き締めの継続は成長に悪影響を及ぼすことに留意している。

最後に、日本では、日本政府が元日銀政策委員でエコノミストの植田和男氏を次期日銀総裁に任命することを検討しているとのニュースが飛び込んできた。 Nikkei.comの報道によると、政府は当初、現在の日銀総裁である雨宮氏に打診していたが、同氏は着実に就任を拒否しているとのことだ。

その他の注目材料

本日の欧州時間では、ノルウェーの1月CPPIが加速し、その後、チェコの同月消費者物価指数が発表されることに注意したい。米国時間では、米国の2月のミシガン大学消費者心理指数（速報値）に注目する。ウォラーFRB総裁とハーカーフィラデルフィア連銀総裁のスピーチが予定されていることに注意したい。アジア時間には、主要な金融指標の発表は予定されていない。