Crypto Outlook: BTC halving set to occur this week

Since our last report, the bullish momentum driving Bitcoin’s price appears to be waning.  Crypto bulls seem to have eased their aggressiveness, with some strengthening appearing from the bears who may have temporarily gained control over the coin’s direction. In this report, we aim to shed light on the possible factors aiding to the recent developments in combination with a technical analysis of Bitcoin.

Crypto: Overview Report

Crypto now impacted by geopolitical tensions?

According to a report by CNBC, Bitcoin’s decline over the weekend could be attributed to the rising tensions in the Middle East. In particular, on Saturday evening Iran attacked Israel using an assortment of drones and missiles, causing grave concern about a potential regional war between the two nations.

The report, highlighted the impact on Bitcoin may have been due to digital coins being the only risky assets that were tradeable over the weekend. Therefore, with the geopolitical “risks” increasing, assets such as gold may receive safe-haven inflows, which in turn could lead to investors liquidating their riskier assets such as Bitcoin, which in turn may have weighed on the coin’s price.

Hong Kong gives initial green light for BTC&ETH spot ETF’s

According to a report by Bloomberg, Hong Kong has given initial Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF conditional approval for asset managers to start Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds.

The approval could potentially increase the markets optimism surrounding cryptocurrencies, as more and more regulatory approval appears to be in the pipeline from major economies.

Furthermore, the expansion of BTC ETF’s to the Hong Kong markets could increase liquidity in the market, and thus should demand increase, so could the price of Bitcoin. On the flip, an increase in liquidity could also make the markets more volatile.

Bitcoin’s halving is expected to occur on Friday

Bitcoin’s price appears to have stabilized somewhat despite its recent decline; it has managed to stay above the $60,000 key psychological support base. At Crypto market volatility may remain elevated and could intensify during this week, as the majority of speculators are anticipating the halving to occur on the 19     

However, we should note that despite the majority of speculators agreeing on which data the halving may occur, their specific time varies based on each speculator, as it is difficult to exactly predict what time the halving may occur. Nonetheless, in our opinion market participants may see increased volatility on Friday.

Overall Bitcoin’s halving appears to have remained as one of the main drivers fundamentally aiding Bitcoin in remaining above the $60,000 key psychological level.

Once again, the potential consolidation of the coin as it becomes even harder to acquire, could entice a large number of investors who up until now may have been unwilling to enter the market.

As such, should more investors enter the crypto market and load up on Bitcoin, it could potentially provide support for the coin’s price as the halving date nears.

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 61700 (S1), 51800 (S2), 43500 (S3)
• Resistance: 73200 (R1), 83000 (R2), 90000 (R3)

BTC/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion after bouncing off the 61700 (S1) support level. For the time being, we opt to maintain our sideways bias for the coin and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment, in addition to the narrow Bollinger bands which imply low market volatility.

Nonetheless, for our Crypto outlook to continue, we would like to see the coin remain confined between the 61700 (S1) support level and the 73200 (R1) resistance line.

On the other hand, we would immediately switch our neutral bias in favour for a bullish outlook, in the event of a clear break above the 73200 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 83000 (R2) resistance line.

Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 61700 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 51800 (S2) support line.

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リスクに関する警告：

Crypto CFDs are an extremely high-risk, speculative investment and you may lose all your invested capital. Before trading, you need to ensure you fully understand the risks involved taking into consideration your level of experience and investment objectives. Seek independent advice, if necessary.