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Despite a year dominated by the worldwide coronavirus outbreak, gold prices scaled historic new heights in 2020. Uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic and the sharp economic downturn caused by the many national government lockdowns across the world were both key factors behind the record gold prices this year. Indeed, gold reached all-time highs in the past 12 months, trading at $2,070.05 per ounce on August 6, signaling a great desire from investors to move to the safe haven precious metal. However, far from predicting a downturn in the value of gold, some of the major investment banks and financial institutions are now forecasting a continued rise into the new year – and beyond.
The gold forecast for 2021
Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, expects gold to continue climbing in value as we move into 2021, setting a price target of $2,300 per ounce. In a recent market forecast, their analysts were of the view that gold could continue its bull run, stating: “In our view, the structural bull market for gold is not over and will resume next year as inflation expectations move higher, the US dollar weakens and emerging-market retail demand continues to recover.” Goldman also predicts a growth in demand for gold, particularly across emerging markets, such as China and India. This theory is further enhanced by a belief that a US administration under President-elect Biden with a softer trade policy will support a gold rally. However, they did acknowledge that in the short term, it may be difficult for gold to generate any real or meaningful momentum either way, in terms of an upwards or downward movement. Meanwhile, analysts at Australian bank ANZ expect the metal to climb to $2,300 per ounce at the beginning of next year. Citibank shared this level of optimism in their own forecast, placing their gold price estimate at an even higher rate of $2,400 by mid-2021. Indeed, such valuations are indicative of what is likely to be the peak highs of any rally by the commodity. Looking back at history can sometimes be a good indicator of where a commodity could be heading in terms of value. However, there is no precedent for a global pandemic where the economies of most – if not all – of the world’s wealthiest nations suffer extreme recessions. Therefore, we are in unchartered territory, and it remains to be seen what the impact will be on the markets in the short, medium and long-term.
Should traders invest in gold?
The question that will undoubtedly be on the minds of every investor will be whether or not to return to the safe haven of the yellow metal. Of course, as with any market forecast, one can never fully know for sure, with estimates – particularly long-term – being somewhat difficult in the current climate. It is true to say that current projections for the price of gold is on the bullish side, with the metal performing very well in the latter part of this year. However, it should be noted that, at present, the global financial markets continue to be highly volatile. This should certainly be factored in, when deciding where to invest going forwards. In times such as these, it is recommended that traders keep well briefed and updated with the latest market trends, news and forecasts. Keeping tabs on technical analysis and the opinions of expert market analysts is also advised, before making any investment decisions and commitments.
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