BoE’s interest rate decision in focus

The USD was on the rise against its counterparts on Wednesday despite the Fitch rating agency downgrading US bonds. Overall, the recent US financial data and a number of economists citing the downgrade as out of place tended to out-trump Fitch’s decision allowing for confidence in the recovery of the US economy to remain present. Furthermore, the release of the US ADP employment report for July showed that hirings in the private sector had not fallen as much as the market expected, implying that the US employment market remains tight also supporting the greenback and boosted hopes for a better-than-expected US employment report for July, tomorrow Friday.

US stock markets, on the other hand, dropped reflecting market worries for the outlook of the US fiscal government’s policy, given also the downgrading of US bonds by Fitch. Stock market participants still have to navigate through the Fed’s intentions, fundamentals and earnings releases. Today we turn our attention to the US tech sector as we get the earnings releases of Apple (#AAPL) and Amazon (#AMZN)but also keep an eye out for travel companies Booking (#BKNG)and Airbnb (#ABNB).

Back in the FX market and across the pond, pound traders are to keep a close eye on the release of BoE’s interest rate decision. The bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points and GBPOIS imply a probability of 63% for such a scenario to materialise, with the rest implying that a 50-basis points rate hike may also be possible, showcasing the market’s hawkish expectations. Hence a 25 basis points rate hike may not be sufficient for the pound to get some support. The bank may have to provide also a clear-cut hawkish forward guidance, showing clear intentions to continue hiking rates, for the pound to rise.

On a technical level, GBP/USD continued to drop and is currently aiming for the 1.2700 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as long as it remains below the downward trendline incepted since the 14 of July and given that the RSI indicator is running along the reading of 30, highlighting the bearish sentiment of the market for the pair, yet at the same time may be warning that the pair has reached oversold levels and may be ripe for a correction higher. Should the bears maintain control over the pair, we may see cable breaking the 1.2700 (S1) support line with the next target for the bears being set around 100 pips lower at the 1.2600 (S2) support barrier. For a bullish outlook, we would require the pair to rise, break the prementioned downward trendline in a first signal that the downward motion has been halted but also break the 1.2880 (R1) resistance line in search of higher grounds. On the commodities front, despite oil prices falling yesterday, we tend to see them remaining supported as US inventory data yesterday, showed how tight the US oil market is and we do not expect OPEC+ to tweak its low production plans at tomorrow’s meeting.

WTI’s price dropped yesterday breaking the 81.25 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance and continued lower to test the 79.00 (S1) support level. Given that the commodity’s price in its downward movement broke the upward trendline incepted since the 28 of June, we temporarily switch our bullish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias. Should the selling interest be renewed we may see WTI’s price breaking the 79.00 (S1) support line and aim for the 76.70 (S2) support level. Should buyers be in control of WTI’s price we may see it reversing the losses made yesterday, breaking the 81.25 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 83.35 (R2) resistance base.

その他の注目材料

In today’s European session, we note the release of Switzerland’s and Turkey’s CPI rates for July, Eurozone’s and UK’s services and composite PMI figures for July, Eurozone’s producer prices for June and on the monetary front we note the release from the Czech Republic of CNB’s interest rate decision. In the American session, we note the release from the US of the weekly initial jobless claims figure, the factory orders growth rate for June and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for July, while on a monetary level we note that Richmond Fed President Barkin is scheduled to speak.