米国の6月のインフレ率は低下

The USD tumbled against its counterparts on Wednesday as the US CPI rates for June slowed down more than expected both at a headline as well as at a core level. Market expectations for the Fed to ease its aggressive hawkish stance tended to intensify with some even predicting that the Fed’s rate hiking cycle may come to an early end. For the time being and according to Fed Fund Futures the market seems to continue to expect another rate hike by the bank in its next meeting, yet the expectations for another rate hike after that seem to have been erased , while a rate cut is also expected in Q1 2024. It’s characteristic that on a technical level the USD continued to weaken against the JPY with USD/JPY delivering an over 600 pips drop over the past seven days, by breaking the 136.80 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as long as the downward trendline remains intact. Yet, we would also note that the RSI indicator remains below the reading of 30, showcasing the dominance of the bears, yet may also imply that the pair has reached oversold levels and may be ripe for a correction higher. Should the selling interest be extended we may see USD/JPY breaking the 137.45 (S1) support line and aim for the 135.70 (S2) level. If the pair finds buying orders along its path, we may see it reversing course, breaking the prementioned downward trendline in a first signal that the downward motion has been interrupted, break the 136.80 (R1) line and aim for the 140.80 (R2) resistance level. The news tended to provide a boost to US stockmarkets as well, as all three major US stockmarket indexes, namely the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were in the greens and as the earnings season starts.

このニュースは米国株式市場を後押しし、ダウ平均、S&P500、ナスダックという米国株式市場の主要3指数はすべて上昇し、決算シーズンが始まった。ポンド投資家は、英国の金融安定性に関してBOEが実施したストレステストの結果もあって、自信を保っているようだ。その結果、英国の金融機関は想定される経済危機を乗り切るために十分な資本を有していることが示された。このシナリオにより、BOEはタカ派的な傾向を維持し、今後数カ月の間にさらなる利上げを実施することになる。ポンド投資家は本日、5月のGDPと同月の製造業生産高伸び率の発表に注目すると予想されるが、見通しは立っていない。サプライズがなければ、ポンド安が予想されるが、たとえそうであっても、より広い視野を考えれば、一時的なものになるかもしれない。

最後に、中国の貿易指数が発表された。憂慮すべきは、中国の輸出がさらに縮小したにもかかわらず、輸入も減少したため貿易黒字が増加したことだ。とはいえ、このニュースは中国経済の経済活動の低下を示唆するものであり、中国経済はさらにストレスを受けるだろう。