RBA to remain on hold?

The RBA’s last meeting minutes were released earlier on today. In the bank’s minutes it was stated that “Members agreed that their decision at this meeting did not commit them to further reductions in the cash rate target at subsequent meetings”, implying that the bank may remain on hold in their next monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, it was also stated that the return of inflation to the bank’s inflation target, whilst preserving the labor market was not yet assured. Overall the banks minutes could be interpreted as predominantly hawkish in nature, which in turn could aid the Aussie.In the US the S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures for February were released during yesterday’s American session. Notably the S&P manufacturing PMI figure came in higher than expected at 52.7 versus 51.6 and higher than the prior figure of 51.2, which tends to imply an expansion in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. Yet the ISM manufacturing PMI figure came in lower than expected at 50.3 versus 50.6 and even lower than the prior figure of 50.9, which tends to contradict our aforementioned statement. However, both financial releases indicate that the manufacturing sector of the US economy expanded and could thus aid the dollar.Over to Japan, the nation’s unemployment rate for January was released during today’s Asian session. The financial release indicated an uptick in unemployment with the rate coming in at 2.5% which is higher than the expected and previous rate of 2.4%. The unexpected increase in the unemployment rate could potentially weigh on the JPY, as it may raise concerns about the bank’s willingness to continue hiking interest rates should the employment market continue to loosen. In the US, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to have gone through, with Canada retaliating by stating that they may be imposing a 25% tariff on American exports to Canada.

WTICash appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the commodity currently taking aim for our 66.60 (S1) support level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the commodity’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure close to 30, implying a strong bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a break below our 66.60 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 61.75 (S2) support line. On the flip side for a sideways bias we would require the commodity’s price to remain confined between the 66.60 (S1) support level and the 70.40 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 70.40 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 74.15 (R2) resistance level.

USD/JPY appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, despite retesting once again our 148.65 (S1) support level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator which currently registers a figure close to 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue we would require a clear break below the 148.65 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 146.00 (S2) support line. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 148.65 (S1) support level and the 151.40 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 151.40 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 154.30 (R2) resistance level.

その他の注目材料

Today we get the US API weekly crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session we make note of Australia’s final composite PMI figure for February, Australia’s GDP rate for Q4 the speech by BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida and China’s Caixin services PMI figure for February.