{"id":118566,"date":"2025-08-14T16:17:01","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T13:17:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=118566"},"modified":"2025-08-14T16:17:56","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T13:17:56","slug":"oil-outlook-oil-bears-seem-to-get-tired","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/id\/oil-outlook-oil-bears-seem-to-get-tired\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: Oil bears\u00a0seem to get tired"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil prices renewed their drop yesterday for the past two days<\/a> yet oil bears seem to be getting tired. In this report we are to examine fundamental issues affecting wti prices such as the state of the US oil market, OPEC\u2019s production hikes and geopolitics, and we are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s daily chart<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US oil market cools off<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start with the comment about the state of the US oil market by noting that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase as such is immaterial yet the interesting issue is that it\u2019s first increase of active oil rigs in the US since the end of April. The activation of another oil rig could be perceived as a sign of increased demand yet in our opinion the rise is only marginal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we got the API weekly crude oil inventories figure which took the oil market by surprise showing a build-up of US oil inventories 1.5 million barrels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly on Wednesday EIA reported also an increase of US oil inventories for the past week, even wider than API, at the amount of 3.036 million barrels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both indicators highlight how aggregated WTI demand in the US market failed to reach and overcome oil production levels, thus implying a slack in the US WTI market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the indicators in the coming week continue to show a slack in the US oil market or even that the slack has widened\u00a0 we may see them exercising bearish pressures on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI supply and demand issues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We highlight the release of IEA\u2019s oil market report for AUG 25<\/a>. The report may have been the highlight of the wee for oil traders so far. The agency\u2019s report highlighted its expectations for the global oil supply to rise in the current and 2026, while simultaneously highlighted also a possible easing of oil demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Agency cited OPEC\u2019s increase of production as the main reason behind a possible flooding of the market with oil. It should be noted that OPEC countries have elevated their production levels in the past month, in an indication of the oil producing cartel\u2019s intentions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, we continue to view economic activity in the manufacturing sector, especially in China and the US, as leaning towards the weakening side, which could weigh on oil demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see the market intensifying its expectations for increased\u00a0 oil production in the current and coming year, we may see those expectations weighing on oil prices in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump-Putin meeting could affect oil prices<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On a geopolitical level, we highlight US President Trump\u2019s meeting with Russian President Putin tomorrow, Friday in Alaska. The issue was highlighted in last week\u2019s report as well and could potentially have substantial effects on oil supply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past week, media had highlighted the possibility of a deal at which Ukrainian territory could be given to Russia in exchange for peace. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet White House officials have downplayed the possibility of such a scenario and its characteristic that they regard the meeting more like a \u201clistening exercise\u201d for the US President.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the current stage we see the case for Russia to have little incentive for a peace treaty and may prefer to play hard ball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand the US President seems to be allready hardening his positions, yet the media report that Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky, that he will not discuss territory divisions with Putin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand rumours are being spread that the US President may offer Russian access to rare earths and an easing of sanctions of Russian oil exports to get a ceasefire, a scenario that seems more plausible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the meeting result in a thawing of tensions in the US-Russian relationships, we may see the meeting weighing on oil prices, while should the tensions intensify, we may see oil prices getting some support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n