{"id":67757,"date":"2023-08-10T17:01:22","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T14:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=67757"},"modified":"2026-02-04T10:10:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T08:10:47","slug":"bulls-still-present-in-the-oil-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/fr\/bulls-still-present-in-the-oil-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Bulls still present in the oil market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite some ups and down the upward trajectory of oil prices<\/a> was clearly maintained with WTI reaching levels not seen since the early days of November last year. In this report, we aim to shed light on the factors driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start with the latest data concerning the US oil market. As last week draw to a close, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs dropped by four, reaching 525, a level not seen since March last year. The drop is not to be considered a positive signal for oil prices as it would imply lesser demand in the US oil market. Yet the negative news kept coming in as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in US oil inventories on Tuesday. Similarly, the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories also indicated a substantial rise this time of 5.85 million barrels. The data tended to highlight that the tightness as reported by the previous week\u2019s figures had been reversed as the demand levels were not able to catch up with production. Overall the slack present currently in the US oil market if magnified could have an adverse effect on oil prices, yet may not be their only driver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market worries for US CPI rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the past few days there were considerable market worries for the release of the US CPI rate for July. The rates did actually show an acceleration yet beyond market expectations. The question though remains whether the market believes that the acceleration would be sufficient for Fed policymakers to proceed with another rate hike in the bank\u2019s September meeting. Should the bank\u2019s policymakers start increasingly signaling that another rate hike is possible, then the market due to fears of reduced economic activity in the US may drive oil prices lower as lower demand may be anticipated. On the other hand, should the acceleration not be considered sufficient for the bank to actually proceed with another rate hike, we may see oil prices getting another boost as market expectations for increased demand may be enhanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC\u2019s production and demand outlooks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another factor that seems to drive oil prices is OPEC\u2019s intentions. On the production side, the oil-producing cartel keeps levels low which in turn implies a tight supply side supporting oil prices. Yet also the demand outlook of OPEC for the oil market seems to remain healthy in the second half of the year, and furthermore seems to be sticking to its forecast for a robust demand in 2024. It\u2019s characteristic that the oil production organization is expecting a rise in oil demand by 2.44 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and 2.25 million bpd in 2024. The Organization cites \u201cIn 2024, solid global economic growth amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost the consumption of oil,\u201d. The upbeat outlook in conjunction with the tight supply side, given that Saudi Arabia seems to have delivered on its production cuts, may continue to be a positive factor for oil prices in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s demand<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yet we tend to maintain our worries for the oil demand outlook of China. We note that the trade surplus of China may have widened in July, which could be a positive for the Chinese economy as it\u2019s international trading transaction caused a wider inflow of wealth yet the result was achieved from simultaneously contracting growth rates in both imports and exports, which in turn may imply also a contraction of economic activity. In addition to that, we also note that the Chinese economy seems to be entering a deflationary mode highlighting the issues it faces. Given that China\u2019s economy is mainly manufacturing-driven, a slowing of growth could have an adverse effect on oil prices and should the market\u2019s worries for the recovery of China intensify we may see them having an adverse effect on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyser la technique<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash 4H Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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