{"id":51476,"date":"2023-01-10T15:34:09","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T13:34:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=51476"},"modified":"2025-10-13T16:51:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T13:51:53","slug":"gold-holds-advance-near-8-month-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\/ar\/gold-holds-advance-near-8-month-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold holds advance near 8-month highs"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0630\u0647\u0628\u064a<\/strong> edged higher<\/strong><\/a> since our last report and reached its highest levels since mid-June of 2022. The precious<\/strong> is currently consolidating<\/strong> its gains<\/strong> near the $1880 level ahead of today\u2019s highly anticipated Fed Chair Powell\u2019s speech<\/strong> and tomorrow\u2019s crucial CPI print<\/strong>. A softer-than-expected NFP print last Friday, as well as a deterioration in the US services industry, which contracted the most in over two and half years, bolstered speculations that the central bank will be forced to slow down its tightening efforts and helped put a floor under the bullion\u2019s price, aiding to its advance higher. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Softer-than-expected employment data boosts the bullion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, a paradoxical reaction was observed from the markets as the latest round of employment data<\/strong> showcased, that despite some apparent softening<\/strong> in the NFP<\/strong> figure<\/strong> \u0648 average weekly earnings<\/strong>, the labour market<\/strong> remains resilient<\/strong> by historical standards. Market participants, appear to be underestimating the resolve of the US central bank, as they progressively bet that the Fed<\/strong> will not raise rates beyond the 5% target<\/strong> level and will be forced<\/strong> to pivot<\/strong> \u0648<\/strong> cut rates<\/strong> later this year. Currently, the Fed\u2019s Funds Futures expect the bank to opt for a 25-basis point rate hike in the upcoming February meeting, basing their assessment on improved economic data and decelerating inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the central bank according to its latest meeting minutes foresees no rate cuts in 2023 and a terminal rate rising above the 5% target. The divergence in what the Fed states it will do and what the market hears and interprets may very well lead to increasingly higher levels of implied volatility, which could pose a detrimental risk to the function of the markets. The conclusion from the reactions could therefore be, that the market<\/strong> is increasingly placing<\/strong> heavier<\/strong> reliance<\/strong> on the effect of incoming<\/strong> data<\/strong>, adjusting their projections accordingly and paying diminishing attention<\/strong> to the broadcasted narrative of the Fed<\/strong>. Nonetheless, the bullion<\/strong> continues to find support<\/strong> from the prospect of less-hawkish<\/strong> interest rate hike expectations, which polish the appeal<\/strong> of the shiny<\/strong> metal<\/strong>, as the greenback<\/strong> creeps lower<\/strong>, failing to gain traction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Chair Powell speaks today<\/a> <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The head of the Federal Reserve<\/strong> is scheduled to make an appearance at the Riksbank Symposium held in Sweden later today and the market participants will be looking attentively to the comments of the Chair, who may possibly reveal insights to the central banks\u2019 future hike path. Should the contents of the speech contain hawkish undertones calling for more rate hikes, the precious may be subject to short-term downward pressures, easing further from its 8-month peak, ahead of Thursday\u2019s highly anticipated US inflation print. \u00a0Earlier this week, San Francisco Fed President Daly pointed out that interest rates will need to surpass 5% in order to successfully tackle inflation, but how far beyond 5% is \u201ccurrently unclear\u201d. She also stated that the pace of hikes depends on incoming information, reiterating the Fed\u2019s stance on assessing the situation in a \u201cdata depended\u201d fashion. \u00a0Atlanta Fed President Bostic also shared similar views, stating that the central bank has more work to do, yet at a more moderate pace, as the bank moves closer to its projected terminal rate. Comments from the aforementioned policymakers for more rate increases to dampen demand, mirror statements of St. Louis Fed President Bullard last week, showcasing once again that the narrative put forth remain unanimous<\/strong>, adding to the credibility<\/strong> of the committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation print the main event<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Thursday, the markets\u2019 attention is expected to shift towards the CPI print<\/strong> of December which will give details on where the inflationary problem<\/strong> stands in the US. According to estimates, December\u2019s year-on-year CPI rate is expected to decelerate from 7.1% to 6.5% and likewise, the year-on-year Core CPI rate<\/strong> for the same month is set to ease<\/strong> to 5.7% from the 6.0% recorded in the previous month. Should the actual rates meet their respective expectations, that would imply that inflationary pressures are abiding<\/strong> \u0648 may intensify speculations<\/strong> that the Fed<\/strong> will consider slowing down its monetary policy tightening efforts<\/strong>. As a result, we may see the dollar facing<\/strong> further downward pressures<\/strong> and on the contrary, the precious\u2019 price receive support<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Analysis of Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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